The question is difficult to answer.
There is no denying that John Lucas has been a pleasant surprise for the Chicago Bulls this season. Last year Lucas played in only two games for the Bulls. In one of those games he missed two free-throws against the Denver Nuggets with Chicago ahead by one. Carmelo Anthony nailed a game-winning buzzer beater in Luol Deng's face on the next play.
This season Lucas is a different player. He’s already played in 37 games and started two. In his first career start he burst onto the scene with 25 points, eight rebounds and eight assists against the Washington Wizards. Lucas boasts an above-average player efficiency rating of 16.61 (15 is the league average) along with per 40 minute averages of 20.4 points, 4.6 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game. Lucas is also nailing a three-pointer a game at a 41.7 percent clip. Although Lucas is in the midst of a career season, will he be a factor in the postseason? That remains to be seen.
The biggest question of all is how will Tom Thibodeau find minutes for Lucas? If Richard Hamilton is healthy I would fully expect him to get at least 20 minutes a game in the postseason. Brewer should play at least 25 minutes a game in the playoffs. As long as Korver continues to make three’s he will be receiving around 15 minutes per game. Also you can’t forget about the reigning MVP Derrick Rose who played 40.6 minutes per game during the postseason last year. With Lucas being listed at five-foot-eleven (though he looks like he’s Muggsy Boguesout there) Thibs may be hesitant to give him playoff minutes because of his major height disadvantage. ESPN’s stat guru John Hollinger brought up a good point in this regard.
“(This) brings up an interesting playoff question for the Bulls: Do you use Lucas or Watson as the backup PG in the postseason? Also, you may have stumbled upon another tactic, which is for the Bulls to play with Rose as the 2 on defense and Lucas as the 2 on offense in a small backcourt.”
By playing Lucas at shooting guard on offense and point guard on defense the Bull’s would be able to have his scoring ability on the floor while not having to deal with his defensive shortcomings. Rose is more than capable of guarding shooting guards with his six-foot-three build and improved defensive awareness. Although only 4% percent of the Bull’s total minutes have had Rose playing shooting guard, he has held his opposition to an astonishing 4.9 PER. At point guard Rose has been stellar on D as well, allowing a middling 10.6 PER. This tactic of essentially playing Rose at shooting guard and Lucas at point guard may seem a bit far-fetched, but Thibodeau would be smart to at least try it in the postseason. The Bulls need to find minutes for Lucas in anyway possible.
When Lucas is on the floor the Bulls are better, it’s as simple as that. The numbers overwhelmingly back up that statement. In Chicago’s thirteen best lineups based off plus minus, guess who appears in six of them? Yep you guessed, John Lucas. Lucas especially plays well in the lineup of him, Korver, Deng, Gibson and Asik. The lineup has a plus minus of 60. This is far ahead of the Bulls third best unit which boasts a plus minus of 35. This isn’t a small sample size either, the Bull’s second best lineup has played together a total of 117 minutes and 37 seconds. That lineup is actually Chicago’s fourth most used rotation. Lucas’s on court and off court numbers prove his worth to the Bulls as well.
When Lucas is on the floor the Bulls three-point attempts and offensive rebounds per 48 minutes increase by greater than 10 percent. This is because Lucas spaces out the floor and gives Chicago’s bigs more of a shot at getting the offensive rebound. The Bulls point margin with Lucas on the floor also increases from 8.5 when Lucas is on the bench to a fantastic 11.2 per game with Lucas on the court. The Bulls net rating (the different between offensive rating and defensive rating) is 9.1 with Lucas on the bench compared to 14.1 with Lucas on the court. Anyway you want to put it, the Bulls are better when Lucas is playing.
In the postseason benches tend to play much less. Lucas is not the only member of the bench mob that will see less minutes when postseason play begins. Obviously the likes of Rose and Deng will be playing 40 minutes a game in the playoffs, but the two-guard dilemma still remains. Understandably Brewer will receive most of the minutes at shooting guard, but Thibodeau would be smart to at least try to squeeze Lucas into the lineup one way or another. The Bulls season will come down to beating the Miami Heat. Bulls fans will remember for a long time what John Lucas can do to the Heat.
Who would’ve guessed that this undrafted, undersized 29 year-old point guard would become the X-factor to a Bulls playoff run?
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