I know it’s early in the season, but heading into All-Star break the current playoff match-ups are interesting to think about. The most intriguing pairing of current playoff match-ups comes from the Eastern Conference where the No. 2 seeded Chicago Bulls would face off against the No. 7 New York Knicks (this is based off John Hollinger's Playoff Odds). With the Knicks modest record of 17-18 and the Bulls robust record of 27-8 one would assume Chicago would cruise in a series between the two. I don’t think so. This series has made-for-television action written all over it. Let’s take an early look at how the Knicks would fair against the Bulls if the playoffs began today.
An In-Depth Look at the Knicks
The Knicks have been spectacular during the Lin Era. Since Lin torched the New Jersey Nets on Feb. 4, New York has won nine of its last twelve games. This team is distinctly different with Jeremy Lin at the helm. The lineup of Toney Douglas, Landry Fields, Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler is much less intimidating then the lineup of Lin, newly acquired J.R. Smith, Melo, Amare and Chandler as well as three-point specialist Steve Novak coming off the bench. (I hate to go off on a tangent but seriously how is Novak not considered the greatest shooter in the league? The guy is making two three’s a game at a sizzling 45.7 percent clip. His three pointers per game are eighth in the NBA and his three-point percentage is fifth. And you can’t forget Novak is six-foot-ten so he could get his shot over anyone. He also hasn’t missed a free throw since the 09-10 season! I mean he’s only made 14 FT’s since but that’s still impressive. In college he missed two free throws his senior year and made 74. That’s a FT percentage of 97.4. Novak made 368 three pointers during his college career at Marquette. He still managed to shoot them efficiently as well at a ridiculous 46.4 percent rate. I understand Novak can’t defend for his life but man the dude can shoot. And now back on topic.)
The Knicks new look lineup has potential to be one of the better lineups in the Eastern conference. Even ESPN’s John Hollinger said that the Knicks lineup is arguably better than 13 out of the 15 Eastern Conference teams (my guess is that he left out the Heat and Bulls). Let’s take a look at how the Bulls and Knicks lineups matchup up against each other.
Point Guard: Jeremy Lin vs. Derrick Rose
Lin has the fifth best PER among point guards and the eighteenth best PER in the entire league. His per 40 minute numbers are ridiculous at 24 points, 4.7 rebounds and 9.6 assists per game. The biggest weakness in Lin’s offensive repertoire is his tendency to turn the ball over constantly. Against the Heat Lin struggled against their smothering defense and had eight turnovers. Lin is averaging 3.6 turnovers per game. Per 40 minutes his turnovers balloon to six per game. This is unacceptable. Lin must learn how to maneuver his way through traps and double teams that teams will continue to throw at him. As solid as Lin is offensively, he’s not too shabby at defense either. Lin is averaging 2.5 steals and 4.7 rebounds per 40 minutes. Both of those numbers are spectacular for a point guard. According to 82games.com Lin’s opponents PER is 15.1 which is solid. Lin has the third best defensive number per 40 minutes among point guards according to hoopdata.com (with at least 20 minutes per game). This is a combination of blocks, charges and steals per game (Lin averages 3.45 per 40 minutes). As solid as Lin’s numbers are they pale in comparison to Rose.
Rose’s PER of 24.48 is sixth in the entire league and second among point guards (behind Chris Paul). As good as Lin’s per 40 minutes numbers are, Rose’s are right there with him at 24.7 points, 4 rebounds and a career best 8.7 assists per game. Rose only averages 3.3 turnovers per 40 minutes compared to Lin’s six. As amazing as Rose is offensively, this year he has been every bit as good defensively. Rose is holding opposing point guards to an abysmal 10.8 PER (well below the league average of 15 and below Hollingers BAD rating of 12). Rose has made huge strides on the defensive end this season. Although Rose may not pickup very man steals per game (only averaging 0.8) he one of the best shot block point guards in the league. Last year Rose became the second point guard ever to record 500 assists and 50 blocks. This season Rose is second among point guards in blocks per game (only behind John Wall). As amazing as Lin’s story has been this season, the Lin, I mean win in this matchup has to go to the reigning MVP D-Rose.
Shooting Guard: Landry Fields vs. Richard Hamilton
This matchup will be the most difficult one to compare for two reasons: first of all, Fields is one of the worst starters in all of basketball and two, Hamilton can not stay healthy.
I just don’t know why Fields has gotten so many minutes the past two seasons and started every game of his career so far but two (I also don’t know why Spike Lee wore Fields’s No. 2 jersey for the past two years until he got a Lin Harvard jersey). Don’t get me wrong, Fields has been great for a second round pick, but Smith should be starting instead of him. Offensively Fields is useless. He averages a horrible 12.7 pointer per 40 minutes which is actually an improvement from last season. His field goal percentage is solid at 48 percent but his three point percentage is horrible at 26.5 percent (a huge drop from his 39.3 percentage on three’s last season). Fields is also a middling defender, holding opposing shooting guards to a league average PER. Fields has actually improved his steal rate dramatically, averaging 1.4 steals per game this season. Fields was an outstanding rebounder last season, averaging 8.2 rebounds per 40 minutes and having the second best rebound rate among shooting guards. But this season his rebounding has plummeted, falling to only 5.7 rebounds per 40 minutes. Fields is a player that is better suited for a bench role.
Hamilton on the other hand just can’t stay healthy. His groin injury has limited him to only 11 games played this season. Hamilton wasn’t very good when he played either. His PER of 13.56 is a career low by far. His points per 40 minutes aren’t in the 20 point range for the first time since 2004-2005. Rip is a shell of his former self. The Bulls are without a doubt regretting signing him to that 3 year, $15 million contract. When Rip does play he at least provides experience that few other players in this league can provide. Hamilton is one of four active players that have averaged 20 points per game for at least 120 playoff games. The other three players are future-first-ballot-hall-of-famers in Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, and Dirk Nowitzki. Based on that stat alone I would give the Bulls the advantage in this two-guard matchup.
Small Forward: Carmelo Anthony vs. Luol Deng
Carmelo Anthony, as great as the player he is, has played horribly with Lin so far. Anthony’s numbers with Lin read like this; 15 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game while shooting 38.3 percent from the field. I know this is a small sample size (three games) but still. I don’t think Lin and Melos’ games fit well with each other. Melo needs the ball in his hands at all times but so does Lin. Melo’s PER is still 19.17 despite a poor season for his standards, but I wouldn’t consider him an elite performer anymore. An underrated facet of Melo’s game is his solid, if not, above average defense. Melo has always been a spectacular rebounder for a small forward (averaging 6.3 per game for his career) and also averages a solid 1.1 steals per game. Melo holds opposing small forwards to an 11.6 PER. Melo’s biggest problem defensively is his effort. He has the skills to be an All-Defensive talent, but given his effort the past couple of years he would rather score than defend any day. For that reason, it is debatable that Deng could win the matchup vs. Melo.
Deng is in the midst of a career year. The 26-year old was finally named an All-Star this season and with good reason. Andre Igoudala and LeBron James are the only better wing defenders than Deng in the entire league. Deng holds opposing small forwards to an embarrassing 9.1 PER. And that number isn’t a small sample size either. Not only does Deng play the second most minutes per game in the league at 38.3, his opponent’s PER last season was 11.3. Deng’s length and six-foot-nine build gives him a huge size advantage against opposing small forwards. Despite Deng’s world-class defense, the Man from Sudan has struggled offensively over the past couple of years. 2006-2007 was Deng’s prime year offensively, averaging 20.1 points per 40 minutes while shooting 51.7 percent from the field. His PER of 18.79 that year is a career high. Deng’s PER this year is an average 15.84. This is because Deng has struggled mightily on two pointers (33.3 percent from 3-9 feet, 14.3 percent from 10-15 feet, and 32 percent from 16-23 feet) and has taken a ton more three-pointers. And about those three-pointers, Deng has become a terrific shooter from the corners. Deng is making a career best 1.4 three’s per game at a career high 40.6 percent clip. The addition of the three-pointer in Deng’s arsenal partially makes up for his inability to shoot long two’s anymore. In this matchup between All-Star small forwards I’ll give the Knicks and Melo a slight nod but don’t be surprised if Deng smothers Anthony in the series.
Power Forward: Amare Stoudemire vs. Carlos Boozer
This is the matchup of injury-prone overpaid former All-Star power forwards. Both players have lost a considerable amount of athleticism over the years and have seen a decline in play as a result. Stoudemire has been hurt the most from a sudden decline in his hops.
Stoudemire used to be among the best leapers in the league. Working with Steve Nash Amare got numerous highlight alley-oops per game along with easy dunks off of pick-and-dives to the rim. Stoudemire’s dunk numbers have fallen off the past three years. In 2009-2010 he was second in the league in dunks with 187, last season he was eighth with 119 (a 68 dunk drop-off), and this year he has fallen off to eleventh in the NBA with 43 dunks. Amare is a far gone from his spectacular dunk contest of 2005. Stoudemire’s offensive numbers have fallen off a ton. His PER has dropped from 22.78 last season to 16.30 this season. Amare’s field goal percentage has dropped from 50.2 percent to a career worst 44.7 percent. His per 40 minute points per game drop off has been dramatic, falling from 27.5 points per game to 20.7. With the additions of Lin, Melo and Chandler, the Knicks have to regret splurging $100 million on a player that is clearly in a decline after having multiple knee surgeries.
All you need to know about Boozer is in this column.
Boozer has clearly outplayed Stoudemire this year. Surprisingly, I’d give the Bulls the win in this battle.
Center: Tyson Chandler vs. Joakim Noah
This is a match-up of defensive studs. Both players are easily averaging double-doubles per 40 minutes (Chandler is averaging 14 ppg and 11.4 rpg, Noah is averaging 12.7 ppg and 13.3 rpg). Both players also have outstanding PERs with Chandler at 19.54 and Noah at 18.86 (both are career bests). I would give Chandler on a nod on the defensive end given he was the anchor of a Dallas Mavericks team that won the NBA championship last season. Noah though is the better player offensively. Although Chandler is shooting a spectacular 70.3 percent (which leads the league) but the majority of his baskets come from dunks (3.5 of his 3.9 field goals made per game come from inside the paint). Noah is a skilled passer for a big man (displayed by his triple-double against the Bucks on Feb. 22) and at least has some range on his jump shot (shooting 46 percent from 16-23 feet). I would call this match-up between defensive aces a draw.
The Final Verdict
Here are some important numbers. The Bulls are third in the league in offensive efficiency, the Knicks are 24th. The Bulls are second in the league in defensive efficiency, the Knicks are seventh. Of the five match-ups I listed above, I gave the Bulls the nod on three (Rose, Hamilton and Boozer), gave the Knicks the win on one (Melo) and had a draw between Noah and Chandler. Aside from the starting lineups, the benches are pretty even as well. But because of the increased minutes of starters in the postseason, benches become less important anyway. For my final verdict, I predict the Bulls will beat the Knicks in five games. These five games will be some of the best games of the year. I anticipate this series being similar to the Bulls vs. Pacers first round series last season. The Knicks will fight and Lin will impress, but in the end I see the Bulls toughing this series out. The Bulls ultimate goal will be facing the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. I just can’t wait for the postseason to begin.
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