UFC 144: Japan Preview

 Frankie “The Answer” Edgar vs. Ben “Smooth” Henderson 

Key Statistics   **provided by fightmetic.com** 

(Edgar is the left column, Henderson is right)   

STRIKING (Significant Strikes)
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	3.49	2.45
Striking Accuracy	41%	45%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	1.88	1.13
Defense	74%	63%
GRAPPLING
Takedowns Average/15 min.	2.9	4.1
Takedown Accuracy	36%	48%
Takedown Defense	62%	63%
Submission Average/15 min.	0.33	1.15

For the first time since 2009, Frankie Edgar (14-1-1) will be fighting someone other than BJ Penn or Gray Maynard. Edgar is coming off his most iconic win to date with a TKO victory over his biggest adversary Maynard. Frankie has improved leaps and bounds since first capturing the UFC lightweight title from BJ Penn in 2009, showing some of the best pure boxing skills in MMA along with great hand speed, head movement, fantastic footwork, and most importantly of all, his un-diminishing resolve. Edgar will defend his lightweight crown against Benson Henderson (15-2) who has put together a three-fight winning streak since joining the UFC after losing his WEC lightweight title to Anthony Pettis (who will also be fighting on this stacked card). In Ben’s winning streak he has defeated Mark Bocek, broke Jim Miller’s impressive seven-fight win streak in dominating fashion, and defeated Clay Guida in a three round war. Although Frankie is the betting favorite in this fight, many believe that Henderson poses the most danger to Edgar. Benson is a very large lightweight who has legs like a NFL runningback and uses them to his advantage with very powerful kicks and uses his massive thighs to trap his opponents in his guard for his dangerous guillotine. But Edgar has faced big lightweights before and done well. Frankie is a very small lightweight who only cuts a few pounds to reach the 155lbs mark. In fact Edgar’s Jiu-Jitsu Coach, UFC vet Ricardo Almeida, has said on multiple occasions that Frankie could cut down to 135lbs easily if he wanted to. Frankie doesn’t have to subject himself to grueling weight cuts that he believes would drain his energy. The proof is in the pudding as Frankie is one of the quickest in the division. That being said, both fighters have amazing cardio and determination but this isn’t a race, it’s a fight. This fight is going to be decided in the standup. Frankie will utilize his great boxing and speed to stick and move throughout the fight. Ben after a couple of rounds in trying to trade with Edgar will try to take the fight to the ground. But it will be all for not as I have Edgar winning this battle by Unanimous decision.

Twin Picks:
Arik- Edgar
Mikey- Edgar

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Ryan “Darth” Bader

Key statistics **provided by fightmetric.com**
(Rampage is the left column, Bader is the right)

STRIKING (Significant Strikes)
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	3.18	2.46
Striking Accuracy	57%	35%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	2.22	1.5
Defense	56%	76%
GRAPPLING
Takedowns Average/15 min.	1.69	3.33
Takedown Accuracy	63%	42%
Takedown Defense	80%	0%
Submission Average/15 min.	0.14	0.42

Rampage is having a homecoming of sorts. Jackson (32-9) is returning to the land of the rising sun for the first time since defeating Dong Sik Yoon at Pride 31 in 2006. Quinton essentially became "Rampage" in his tenure at Pride FC because of his brutal one punch KO power and his explosive slams. Rampage has a very special relationship with the Japanese fans. He has shown a sense of revitalization ever since being offered to fight on this card after contemplating a turn to boxing after his loss to Jon Jones at UFC 135. Ryan Bader (13-2) is coming off a much needed victory by knocking out Jason Brilz after dropping two in a row to Jon Jones and Tito Ortiz. Bader jumped at the opportunity to fight Jackson as believes a convincing win will shoot him up the rankings. Bader seems fairly confident that he has the tools to defeat Rampage with his great wrestling skills and some power of his own in his mitts. Many believe that Bader will utilize his wrestling to exploit Jackson’s weakness, which is the ground game. But Rampage has faced better wrestlers in the past and Bader is nothing he hasn’t seen before. After realizing his KO power in pride, he fell in love knocking people out and has trained diligently for years in his takedown defense to keep the fight standing. After failing to take down Jackson, Bader will try to trade with Jackson, which will be his undoing as Bader will get picked apart and eventually knocked out in the third.

Twin Picks:
Arik- Rampage
Mikey- Bader

What made Rampage a superstar in Japan

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields: How can the UFC put together a card for Japan without including Japanese sensation “Sexyama”? Akiyama (13-4) is a fighter who is on the chopping block in the UFC after winning a very controversial decision over Alan Belcher and then dropping three straight fights against Chris Leben, Michael Bisping and most recently Vitor Belfort. After his last defeat, the Judoka decided to drop to welterweight in hopes of revitalizing his UFC career. Shields (26-6-1) is coming off his first two fight losing skid of his career, falling to Georges St. Pierre and then being finished for the first time in a decade by the hands of Jake Ellenberger. Shields and Akiyama make for a very interesting matchup as both are very familiar with the ground and have good striking skills to boot. Since Shields has had problems with heavy hitters in the past, I predict a very similar fight to when Shields defeated Dan Henderson. Akiyama will rock Shields early but survive the first round to come back and take Akiyama to the ground. On the ground Shields will control the battle until the fight’s end and walk away the victor by unanimous decision. Another loss for Akiyama may earn him a pink slip.

Twin Picks:
Arik-Shields
Mikey-Shields

Key statistic **provided by fightmetric.com**

Submission Att. Avg. per 15 Min. in UFC History

Rank	Fighter	Total
1	Joe Lauzon	4.88
2	Charles Oliveira	4.51
3	Stefan Struve	4.33
4	Dustin Hazelett	4.10
5	Cole Miller	3.81
6	Shannon Gugerty	3.41
7	Tim Credeur	3.29
8	Dave Menne	3.25
9	Jim Miller	3.17
9	Frank Mir	3.17
~ minimum 5 UFC fights

Anthony “Showtime” Pettis vs. Joe “J-Lau” Lauzon: This scrap has “Fight of The Night” written all over it. Two of the most exciting lightweight fighters in the UFC square off in what could become an instant classic. Pettis (14-2) was put on the map with his patented “Showtime kick” against Benson Henderson, capturing the WEC lightweight title in the process. He was guaranteed the winner of Gray Maynard/Frankie Edgar to unify the two titles but under certain circumstances that never happened. Thereafter he was paired against Clay Guida in a title eliminator bout and came out on the losing end. Pettis’s title hopes seemed to have gone out the window but with a split decision win over Jeremy Stevens, Pettis is slowly crawling his way back into title contention. Those two fights showcased Pettis’s weakness in takedown defense. Don't get me wrong; in no way is Pettis a slouch on the ground. Pettis has one of the most active guards in the game that persistently presents danger to his opponents. Pettis is also one of the most creative strikers in MMA, using an unorthodox style that keeps his foes on heir toes. J-Lau (21-6) is coming off one of his most impressive wins to date, choking out the steam-rolling Melvin Guillard. Joe is coming off his first two fight win streak since 2009 and shows no signs of slowing down. Lauzon is a submission specialist with 16 of his 21 wins coming by submission. Lauzon also has heavy hands to complement his submission skills. The rest of his wins have come by KO/TKO, so Joe is a finisher who doesn’t like to leave the fight in the hands of the judges.  This fight may go everywhere in this back and forth brawl, but Pettis will be the more precise striker, hurting Lauzon in the beginning of the third to an eventual TKO victory.

Twin Picks:
Arik- Pettis
Mikey- Pettis

The "Showtime" Kick

Cheick Kongo vs. Mark Hunt: I have a feeling this is going to be the most one-sided fight on the card. Kongo (27-6-2) has had a very interesting two fight winning streak. After nearly being knocked out by Pat Barry, Kongo recovered in one of the greatest comebacks of all-time to KO Barry. Kongo then beat rising prospect Matt Mitrione  in a lopsided unanimous decision. Hunt (7-7) on the other hand is also riding his own two-fight win streak after dropping six straight. The former Pride vet’s last win against Ben Rothwell was one of the worst fights I have ever seen. Both men were so exhausted that they could barely fight each other. Hunt has a clear weakness on the ground as six of his seven losses have come by submission so look for Kongo to exploit it. As long as Kongo is smart enough to not stand with Hunt for too long I see this fight being primarily on the ground. Cheick will make quick work of Hunt, winning by submission in round one.

Twin Picks:
Arik- Kongo
Mikey- Kongo

Tim “The Barbarian” Boetsch vs. Yushin “Thunder” Okami: Tim Boetsch (14-4) has reinvented himself at middleweight but has not looked nearly as explosive as he did at light heavyweight. Even though Boetsch is coming off two unanimous decision victories over Nick Ring and Kendall Grove he will have his hands full against top-notch competition in Yushin Okami. Boetsch dropped down to middleweight to have an advantage in the strength department but Yushin is probably one of the strongest in the division. Okami (26-6) is coming off a loss to pound-for-pound king Anderson Silva in August and looks to rebound huge against “The Barbarian”. Okami wants to make a statement to the rest of the division proving that the “Thunder” is still a force to be reckoned with. Boetsch is pretty much outclassed in every aspect of the game in this matchup. Okami has better technical striking and his smothering ground game is superb. Although Boetsch has shown great clinch work in the past, he is also outgunned in this department with Okami’s ability to get a Thai clinch and work knees and elbows. The Barbarian’s only option will be to force Okami into a slugfest. Okami will have none of it. Okami will use cage control and excellent ground and pound en route to a unanimous decision victory.

Twin Picks:
Arik- Okami
Mikey- Okami

Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart “Bartimus” Palaszewski: Hatsu will try and make a statement Saturday that not only does he deserve the next crack at Jose Aldo’s Featherweight crown, but also to show to the world that Japanese MMA is far from dead. Hioki (25-4-2) is coming off a controversial split decision win over George Roop in October, where Roop out struck the former Shooto titleholder. Hioki controlled the fight on the ground. He will be looking to put on a show in front of the Japanese crowd where he can solidify his spot as the number one contender for the 145lbs strap. Bart (36-14) is coming off a highlight reel knockout over Tyson Griffin on the same card coincidentally that Hioki made his UFC debut. Bart should take a page out of George Roop’s book by applying constant movement and pressure, mixing up combinations with stiff jabs and head kicks to put Hioki in a difficult position. Look for Hioki to close the distance and take the fight to the ground where he can use ground and pound. Perhaps Hioki could attempt some submissions although it is unlikely he will succeed considering Bart hasn’t lost by submission since 2007. Hioki gets the W by submission in the third.

Twin Picks:
Arik- Hioki
Mikey- Hioki