After a great visit to the Final Four in New Orleans, I came home and realized that baseball had already started (well not really, those Japan games had about seven people in the US that actually paid attention and watched them)...but, it was time for me to put my baseball mind on and make some predictions on what I see in the 2012 MLB season. By division...
American League
AL East
Rays | 91-71 |
Yankees | 91-71 |
Red Sox | 88-74 |
Blue Jays | 84-78 |
Orioles | 64-98 |
Baseball's toughest division. I think the Yankees will be hit by some injuries and old age and not score nearly as many runs as last year. I think the Rays will continue to be great and receive a big year from Evan Longoria. Boston will have some pitching depth issues and maybe some regression from Ellsbury and Ortiz, although I like the Cody Ross signing. The Jays continue to improve and make great front office decisions but need some bullpen depth to be elite. And sorry Orioles, but you are in the best division in baseball.
AL Central
Tigers | 90-72 |
W'Sox | 87-75 |
Indians | 83-79 |
Royals | 72-90 |
Twins | 69-93 |
Tigers might survive, but that defense might be historically bad. Verlander is amazing but replicating last year’s career year might be difficult. At first, I thought the White Sox would be terrible, but seeing who they kept, and how even a slightly better offense would mean a big change, I am now a believer. Cleveland is young but needs pitching help, especially starting. Royals are young, and a few players away from playoff contention. Twins lost a few key line-up members and seem like they are on their way down.
AL West
Angels | 96-66 |
Rangers | 89-73 |
Mariners | 70-92 |
Athletics | 69-93 |
I love the Angels rotation and bullpen. With Pujols the Angels can be a great team this season, although I have my doubts about the future there. Texas has lost a bit of luster with losing CJ Wilson and some of those bats are getting older. Seattle and Oakland are clearly second-class in this division and offer very little in the way of excitement.
AL Wild Cards:
New York Yankees and Texas Rangers
National League
NL East
Braves | 98-64 |
Phillies | 92-70 |
Nationals | 91-71 |
Marlins | 85-77 |
Mets | 67-95 |
I like Atlanta’s mix of young and old and outstanding pitching depth. I think they have a big year and win a very tough division. Philly is going to struggle to score runs minus Howard and Utley, but their pitching will keep them alive for the season. The Nationals will draw on their youth, not knowing about the pressure and will play loose and come out real fast with a great pitching rotation. They bring up Harper and hold on to wild card number 2. Miami will be one crazy clubhouse, but I think that the bullpen could be its downfall later on in the season. And the Mets, well, they are the Mets.
NL Central
Cardinals | 89-73 |
Reds | 82-80 |
Brewers | 81-81 |
Pirates | 77-85 |
Cubs | 67-95 |
Astros | 62-100 |
Cardinals win this on pitching depth and enough hitters to score just enough. The Reds will be solid, but will they have enough to stay in the playoff hunt? Brewers line-up took a hit with Fielder, which makes meworriedis going to mean more to that line-up than what they want to believe. Pittsburgh seems to be stuck with how they are rebuilding, and I am not sure the Cubs and Astros combined make a playoff team.
NL West
D'backs | 93-69 |
Giants | 88-74 |
Rockies | 82-80 |
Dodgers | 76-86 |
Padres | 64-98 |
I was planning on not picking the Diamondbacks this high, but looking over their core and pitching staff, it is hard to not believe they will be right back where they were last year. Giants have great pitching, but can their new bats be enough? Rockies are a team that is an ace away from being a playoff contender, while the Dodgers have the stars but are a whole supporting cast away from being a playoff team. And the Padres need to get out of Petco to have any chance to attract offensive players to come play there.
Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals
American League Playoffs:
Wild card: Yankees over Rangers
ALDS: Angels over Yankees, Rays over Tigers
ALCS: Rays over Angels
National League Playoffs:
Wild card: Phillies over Nationals
ALDS: Phillies over Cardinals, Braves over Diamondbacks
ALCS: Phillies over Braves
World Series: Rays over Phillies in 7
American League Award Winners:
AL MVP: Evan Longoria
AL Cy Young: Jered Weaver
AL Rookie: Matt Moore
National League Award Winners:
NL MVP: Joey Votto
NL Cy Young: Zach Greinke
NL Rookie: Bryce Harper
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