I decided to take an in-depth look at this series because it is by far the most intriguing of the first round match-ups. Of the 14 experts that predicted the outcome of this series on ESPN.com, ten chose the Grizzlies to win. But of the ten experts that chose the Grizzlies to win, eight of them predicted the series to go the full seven games. With Zach Randolph back from injuries, both teams feature as stacked of rosters as the NBA has to offer. Here’s a look at how the No. 4 seeded Memphis Grizzlies will fair against the No. 5 seeded Los Angeles Clippers.
Why the Clippers will win
The Clippers biggest advantages in this series are chemistry and star-power. The Clippers most used five-man lineup of Chris Paul, Randy Foye, Caron Butler, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan have played a whopping 648 minutes together this season. That's the fourth-most used five-man lineup in the league. The lineup also has the eighth best plus minus at 82. The most used five-man lineup for the Grizzlies (Mike Conley, Tony Allen, Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol) only played with each other for 155 minutes this season. The Clippers most used lineup has played 44 games together compared to the Grizzlies 17 games. The lack of chemistry for the Grizzlies isn’t just limited to this season. Last season Memphis’s most desirable lineup of Conley-Allen-Gay-Randolph-Gasol only played 184 minutes together and zero in the postseason due to Gay’s season ending shoulder surgery. Although Chauncy Billups’ injury forced the Clippers to adjust, by adding Foye into the rotation early Los Angeles has developed chemistry unmatched by most NBA teams. Although Foye is no Billups, he finished seventh in the NBA in three-pointers made with 127 makes.
In terms of star power, only the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers can compete with the Clippers. Griffin and Paul have had absolutely fantastic seasons. Both were top ten in player efficiency rating with Griffin’s at 23.5 (eighth in the league) and CP3’s at 27.09 (second in the league). Griffin increased his field goal percentage from 50.6 percent last season to 54.9 percent this season. His shot selection was much improved this season and of course the presence of Paul helped. CP3’s assists may have been down (32.1 ratio was lowest since 2006) but his turnover ratio was a career best at 7.3. Paul also led the NBA in steals by far at 2.53 (Conley was second at 2.19 steals per game). I don’t think any of you need a reminder of why Griffin and Paul are stars, if you do, just watch this video to spark your memory.
Why the Grizzlies will win
Although that aforementioned Grizzlies lineup has seldom played with together, when they do it’s deadly. By using NBA.com’s advanced tool that compares lineups, the Grizzlies lineup of Conley-Allen-Gay-Randolph-Gasol has a net rating of 17.1 (net rating is the difference between offense and defense rating). The Clippers lineup of Paul-Foye-Butler-Griffin-Jordan only has a net rating of 7.3. Once again, consider the small sample size here but still, the Memphis lineup is intimidating when they’re healthy. Gasol and Randolph down low are the key to their success. This lineup has a rebound percentage of 57.9 percent compared to the Clippers 51.4 percent. The attention Gasol and Randolph demand in the post open up perimeter shots as this lineup bolsts an outstanding three-point percentage of 57.1 percent. Despite the fact that Memphis is given the rep of a defensive team and Los Angeles an offensive team, the Grizzlies outperform the Clips on both ends of the floor in both of the teams' number one lineup (the Grizzlies have an offensive rating of 110.1 and a defensive rating of 93.0, compared to the Clippers 108.2 offensive rating and 100.9 defensive rating).
The Final Verdict
Understandably the Clippers have more star power in Paul and Griffin, but the Grizzlies have some stars themselves. Gasol was an All-Star this year and Randolph made the team last season. The Grizzlies are also the much deeper team, bringing O.J. Mayo off the bench as well as Mo Speights. The Clips do have Nick Young and Kenyon Martin coming off the bench, but both players have severely underperformed this season (Young shooting 39.4 percent since he was traded, Martin sporting a 9.93 PER). The Clippers are also new to the playoffs whereas the Grizzlies were one win away from reaching the Western Conference Finals last season. This series should be the start of a deep postseason run for Memphis. I pick the Grizzlies to win in six.
**Stats provided by NBA.com**
**Stats provided by NBA.com**
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