Jon “Bones” Jones vs. “Suga” Rashad Evans
Vegas aren’t the only ones heavily supporting Jon Jones in this matchup. Unfortunately for Rashad Evans the stats are against him as well. Not only does Jones possess a 9.5 inch reach advantage but he also has the edge in nearly every statistical category that FightMetric.com records. Jones lands 3.82 strikes per minute compared to Evans 2.13. Jones lands those strikes at a 52 percent rate compared to Evan’s 40 percent. The only category that Evan’s has the advantage is takedowns average per fifteen minutes where Evans lands 4.14 takedowns compared to Jones's 3.32. That number is insignificant considering Jones has 100 percent takedown defense so far in his career compared to Evans 67 percent. Even if the fight went to the ground Jones is far more advanced in the submission game, averaging 1.11 submissions per 15 minutes compared to Evans zero. The odds are heavily against Evans in this matchup and even with the huge betting line, I’d still stick with Jones in this one.
Miguel Torres vs. Michael “Mayday” McDonald
This matchup surprised me statistically. The statistic that jumps off the page is Torres’s 18 percent takedown defense. That is an atrocious number, but understandably a lot of those takedowns Torres conceded to be able to work his ground game. His ground game, though, is overrated. Torres is known for being one of the best fighters on his back in the game but surprisingly he only averages 1.64 submissions per 15 minutes. McDonald, who is not known for his submissions, bests that at 1.78 submissions per 15 minutes. “Mayday” is also a terrific wrestler, averaging 2.68 takedowns per 15 minutes with a startlingly 86 percent accuracy. Torres is surprisingly the better striker with a 6 inch reach advantage and better strikes landed per minute at 4.02 compared to McDonald’s 3.03. McDonald absorbs 2.91 strikes per minute compared to Torres’s 1.78. McDonald only defends his opponent’s strikes half of the time compared to Torres’s outstanding 74 percent strike defense. The statistics in this fight don’t scream out an obvious answer, but if you put a gun to my head I’d go with the veteran Torres in this bout.
**Statistics provided by FightMetric.com**
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