Western Conference
(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers
Key Match-up: Tony Parker vs. Chris Paul
This is a match-up between two players who finished in the top-five in MVP voting this season (CP3 finished third and Parker fifth). Both point guards have been the key to their teams' success this season. This is perhaps the first time Parker has been the best player on the Spurs. CP3 has completely changed the culture of the Clippers, leading them to their third postseason series win in 41 years. Between the two point guards, Paul is the better passer, shooter and defender, but Parker is the best in the league at scoring in the paint. The winner of this match-up could very well be the winner of the series.
X-Factor: Kawhi Leonard
Leonard had a terrific rookie season for the Spurs, averaging 7.9 points and 5.1 rebounds per game while finishing with a 16.66 player efficiency rating (fifth among rookies). Leonard’s value comes at the defensive end where he averaged 1.3 steals and had a rebound rate of 12.2, which was seventh among small forwards. If Leonard’s defense wasn’t enough, he hit a solid 37.6 percent of his three-point attempts. This was a huge improvement over the 29.1 percent he shot from downtown last season at San Diego State (even more amazing considering the college three-point line is considerably shorter than the NBA's). Leonard’s versatility could become a huge impact in this series.
Final Verdict: Spurs in 6
I expect this series to be very competitive but the experience of the Spurs will prove to be too much for the Clippers. I also think it is very odd that Blake Griffin didn’t even play during the fourth quarter of Game 7 against the Memphis Grizzlies and Paul only scored two in that last period. The Spurs have too many weapons in Tiago Splitter, Boris Diaw, Leonard, Stephen Jackson, Patty Mills and Danny Green. Aside from those role players, the Spurs boast a terrific Big 3 of Tim Duncan, Parker and Ginobili. This match-up should be fun to watch, but I expect the Spurs to reach the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2008.
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (3) Los Angeles Lakers
Key Match-up: James Harden vs. Kobe Bryant
This match-up is closer than you think. A couple of days ago my friend was trying to convince me that Harden is actually a better player than Kobe right now. I wouldn’t go that far, but it is amazing how great Harden was off the bench this year. Bryant boasted a PER of 21.95 compared to Harden’s 21.13 (third and fourth among shooting guards respectively). Expect Harden to put up more efficient numbers than Kobe in this series, but nonetheless this match-up could determine who wins this battle of Western Conference powerhouses. With Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant averaging over 20 points per game, if Harden has a big series the Lakers might be doomed.
X-Factor: Steve Blake
This guy was arguably the MVP of the Lakers Game 7 win against the Nuggets (Okay I admit it was Pau Gasol but still). Blake played 30 minutes and drained five of his six three-point attempts while nabbing two steals and a block on the defensive end, finishing with 19 points. Blake is an erratic player, but if he keeps playing like this the Thunder might be pushed to the brink.
Final Verdict: Thunder in 6
I expect the Thunder to pull this one off. The combination of Durant, Westbrook, Harden and Serge Ibaka will prove too much for the Lakers. Bynum and Gasol, who are the superior big men in this series, will need to have huge games to help pull off the upset.
Eastern Conference
(4) Boston Celtics vs. (8) Philadelphia 76ers
(4) Boston Celtics vs. (8) Philadelphia 76ers
Key Match-up: Paul Pierce vs. Andre Iguodala
The Celtics already won Game 1 of this series, winning 92-91. The Sixers were in control throughout the game though, in large part because of Iguodala’s tremendous game. Iggy had 19 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists while holding Pierce to 14 points on 3 of 11 shooting. Iguodala was shut down by Luol Deng throughout the entire series against the Bulls, but fortunately for Iggy, his supporting cast bailed him out. The match-up between these All-Star forwards will be crucial. Pierce is the superior shooter, but Iguodala is the better distributor and defender. With Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo having big first games, Iguodala must have a better series than he did against Chicago.
X-Factor: Avery Bradley
With Ray Allen’s iffy ankle, Bradley will become a major factor in this series. Bradley doesn’t provide much offensively, but his defense is game-changing. Bradley’s opponents PER this season against point guards was 12.7 (the league average is 15). Against shooting guards (where Bradley will play most of his minutes this postseason) his opponents PER was a stifling 7.6. To the casual basketball fan Bradley seems like an average role player, but in reality he could change the outcome of this series.
Final Verdict: Celtics in 5
The Sixers fought hard in Game 1 and led much of the way, but I expect the Celtics to rather easily win this series. Philadelphia doesn’t have anyone that can stop Garnett and Rondo (who combined for 42 pts, 23 rebounds, 18 assists, five steals and three blocks in Game 1). The Sixers only beat the Bulls because of very unfortunate occurrences (Derrick Rose and Joakim Noahs’ injuries, poor officiating, I could go on forever about this). I don’t expect Philadelphia to be so fortunate this time around.
(2) Miami Heat vs. (3) Indiana Pacers
Key Match-up: Roy Hibbert vs. any Miami Heat big man
The Miami Heat, who won Game 1 of this series 95-86, may have trouble defending Hibbert in this series. Hibbert is the biggest big man in this series by far. Chris Bosh played against Hibbert for most of the first half, but left with an abdominal strain. That leaves Joel Anthony and Ronny Turiaf to guard the seven-foot-two, 260 pound big man. Hibbert, who had 17 points in Game 1, has had a terrific season. The first time All-Star averaged 12.8 points and 8.8 rebounds per game this season to go along with an outstanding 19.35 PER (11thamong centers). Hibbert is also second among players in blocks per game this postseason with 3.8. If the Pacers have any chance in this series it will be because the Heat can not contain Hibbert.
X-Factor: David West
West had a tremendous Game 1 in a losing effort, scoring 17 points and grabbing 12 rebounds. West is the veteran of the Pacers and brings much needed playoff experience. West did his job this season, posting a 17.84 PER while averaging 12.8 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. The Pacers need their big men to produce even more in this series. The Pacer's wings, Danny Granger and Paul George, will be dominated in the match-up against LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. West has proven that he could up his game when the playoffs start. West averaged 15.8 points and 9.6 rebounds against the Magic in round one. In 2007-2008 when the Hornets were one game away from reaching the Western Conference Finals, West averaged 21.2 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. West has done this before, unlike the other Pacers players, so his leadership is essential in this series.
Final Verdict: Heat in 5
I expect the Pacers to steal a game or two, but the Heat are too much for Indiana. LeBron and Wade were huge in Game 1, combining for 61 points, 15 rebounds and nine assists. The free throw disparity will also be a large factor as the Heat got to the line 38 times in Game 1. Even Bosh had a terrific first half before he left with an injury, scoring 13 points in only 16 minutes. ESPN stat guru John Hollinger predicts a seven-game series so maybe the Pacers will surprise people, me included.
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