Nikola Mirotic: A glimpse of the Bulls future

        Nikola Mirotic is somewhat of a mystery man. The 21-year old forward out of Montenegro is an integral part of the Bulls future that few people actually know about. Chicago obtained his rights after Mirotic was drafted by the Houston Rockets with the 23^rdoverall pick in the 2011 NBA Draft. He was then traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves and soon after traded to the Chicago Bulls. Bulls fans including myself were disappointed that Mirotic was chosen over available players such as MarShon Brooks and Jordan Hamilton. I’ve never been a fan of the whole Euro-stash concept where a player is drafted with the intent of playing in the NBA sometime in the future. In the meantime that player develops his game overseas and is NBA-ready by the time he makes the move. At the time of the selection I thought Mirotic’s name might never be heard again and that we may never see him in a Bulls uniform. Hopefully I was wrong. As it turns out, Mirotic is becoming an international star. To those who have never seen or heard of Mirotic, hopefully this article will give you insight on the budding prospect that may very well become a vital part of the Bulls future.

Subjectively

        Visually Mirotic looks like he is much more than just a stretch 4. His shot looks beautiful, much like a young Dirk Nowitzki. Nowitzki would be the perfect player for Mirotic to model his game after. Mirotic’s arm movement in his shot is especially similar to Nowitzki's. Aside from his jump shot, Mirotic has plenty of other skills. He displayed his underrated athleticism when he postered Maccabi Tel Aviv big man Sofoklis Schortsanitis. Mirotic also uses his outstanding jump shot to get to the rim. At 50 seconds into this video, Mirotic uses a quick pump fake to explode to the basket. The move was quick, but simple, and the defender had to respect his shot. Mirotic also has a solid post game for a 21-year old. At 2:05 into the same video, Mirotic uses a fantastic up-and-under move to score in the post. As the Spanish broadcasters say after the move,"El up-and-under". The peak of this game, which was played against Maccabi Tel-Aviv, was when Mirotic nailed his fourth three-pointer of the game at 3:48 into the video. The crowd and broadcasters go nuts as Mirotic scores 22 points less than 15 minutes into the game. At that point in the game he only had three less points than Maccabi Tel-Aviv's whole team combined. At the 1:23 mark Mirotic shows great rebounding instincts by boxing out, grabbing the offensive rebound and drawing the foul. The only defense displayed is this video is when Mirotic uses his long arms to get a steal at the 1:48 mark. After watching film, Mirotic won't be a game changer defensively, but he certainly won't be a liability either. Subjectively, Mirotic shows a ton of potential for a 21-year old. He has exceptional shooting ability along with a knack to get to the rim and draw fouls. Mirotic has also shown the ability to hit big shots. It's not inconceivable to see him eventually developing a solid post game and possibly become a plus at the defensive end.

Statistically

        To put Mirotic's statistics in perspective I compared his numbers to that of three other similar European imports; Andrea Bargnani, Ersan Ilyasova and Danilo Gallinari.

Stats per 40 minutes in Euroleague play (each player's most recent season)

Player	Team	Pts	FG%	2P%	3PT	3P%	FTA/FGA	FT%	RPG	Stls	Blks	PER	Pts/Play	TS%
Mirotic	Real Madrid	21.7	52.5	57	2	43.9	0.51	91.8	7.8	1.3	0.8	23.9	1.18	0.67
Bargnani	Treviso	20.7	50.8	55.8	2.4	43.4	0.45	71.2	7.8	2.5	1.8	22.6	1.05	0.62
Ilyasova	Barcelona	20.3	45.7	49.5	2.7	40.3	0.2	81.6	13.5	0.9	1.1	23.2	1.01	0.57
Gallinari	Milano	18.9	42	48	1.6	31.8	0.54	78.1	5.3	1.8	0.5	19.6	1	0.55

  **Statistics provided by draftexpress.com**

        These three players are very comparable to Mirotic. All three players played in the Euroleague and have gone on to have successful NBA careers. These big men can all shoot the lights out, but have different skill sets. Gallinari is the most prototypical NBA player. He has a nice jumper, but doesn’t rely on it, he instead excels at driving to the basket and drawing fouls. Bargnani is the most prototypical Euro-big man of the bunch. Bargnani relies heavily on his shooting and lacks other skills. Ilyasova is in-between. He has a very good jump shot, but still uses his athleticism to get to the rim. Ilyasova is also an outstanding rebounder, which is odd for a European player. He averaged 13.5 rebounds per 40 minutes with Barcelona and 12.8 with the Milwaukee Bucks. Many people, including ESPN's stat guru John Hollinger, believed Ilyasova should’ve won the Most Improved Player award this past season (he finished second behind Ryan Anderson). I agree with Hollinger, as Ilyasova improved his PER from 14.40 to 20.55 whereas Anderson improved his PER from 19.09 to 21.23. If Mirotic matched the careers of any of these three players he would be considered a success.

            Mirotic leads the group in points, field goal percentage, two-point percentage, three-point percentage, free-throw percentage, PER, points per play and TS% (all numbers per 40 minutes). His points per 40 minutes were ninth in the Euroleague, free throw percentage was first, free throws made per 40 minutes was eighth, three-point percentage was 13^th, and index rating per 40 minutes was fifth (index rating is essentially Euroleague’s version of PER). To put some of Mirotic’s stats into perspective, if these numbers were in the NBA his PER would’ve been eighth and his true shooting percentage would’ve been second. His points per play of 1.18 would’ve been greater than even Kevin Durant (1.04). Obviously Mirotic didn’t play in the NBA, but putting up those numbers in the Euroleague at the age of 21 is impressive.

Future Projection

            Despite performing well in the Euroleague, what people want to know is how will Mirotic’s numbers translate to the NBA. The Euroleague’s Rising Star award has proved to be a tremendous barometer for future success. The Rising Star is awarded to the Euroleague’s best player under 22. Mirotic has already won the award twice (the first to do so) and is eligible for the award again next season. Former winners of this award include Bargnani, Gallinari, Rudy Fernandez and Ricky Rubio. All of those players have had successful NBA careers with Gallinari and Rubio looking like future All-Stars. Mirotic being part of that company bodes well for his future. In terms of predicting Mirotic’s future NBA numbers, luckily Hollinger has a formula.

            Like any predictive formula, these projections aren’t going to be perfect. Hollinger has been close to perfect on numerous occasions using his formula. Hollinger’s system for converting Euroleague performance to NBA performance looks like this (consider this formula is only used to predict the players first season in the NBA).

• Scoring rate decreases 25 percent
• Rebound rate increases by 18 percent
• Assist rate increases by 31 percent
• Shooting percentage drops by 12 percent
• Overall, PER drops by 30 percent.

        Here are some examples of how effective this formula has been. Hollinger projected a PER of 7.36 for Marco Belinelli, 15.16 for Juan Carlos Navarro and 16.27 for Luis Scola. The three’s numbers turned out to be 8.23, 11.90 and 16.18. So not perfect, but pretty darn close. Hollinger predicted a 13.21 PER for Gallinari and his actual PER turned out to be 13.39. He also predicted his PER would be around 15 or 16 by his third year, and in year three his PER was 15.7. Hollinger’s projections also favored Omer Asik and Nikola Pekovic and look how successful both of them have been. Asik is a monster on the defensive end and Pekovic just had a season where his PER skyrocketed to 21.47 (he averaged 20.6 points and 10.9 rebounds per 40 minutes). He predicted Thiago Splitter would average 18.5 points and 10.3 rebounds per 40 minutes; he ended up averaging 15.1 points and 10.9 rebounds per 40 minutes. I think you get the point; this formula has its flaws, but has been rather effective. So what about Mirotic?

        Mirotic projects to average 16.3 points and 9.2 rebounds while shooting 40.5 percent from the floor with a 16.73 PER. His PER would’ve been fourth among rookies this season, only behind Isaiah Thomas, Kyrie Irving and Kenneth Faried. I expect Mirotic’s rebounds to be lower than the projection, but his shooting percentages should be higher.
        Unfortunately, it could be years until Mirotic makes the transition to the NBA, considering he signed a five-year deal with Real Madrid just last summer. Fortunately, the Bulls have time since next season will be more about getting Derrick Rose healthy than winning. Although Bulls fans will cry for Mirotic to be the immediate replacement for Carlos Boozer, they will have to wait. Come 2016, the Bulls starting lineup could include the Charlotte Bobcats unprotected pick (which looks even better now that the Hornets won the Anthony Davis sweepstakes) and Mirotic. In the meantime Mirotic will continue to dominate the best competition outside the NBA.