Saturday, May 26, 2012

UFC 146 Preview: Making the Best Out of a Bad Situation


Joe Silva isn’t considered the best matchmaker in the business for nothing. Besides putting together great fights time and time again, he can also make the best out of a bad situation. When the original main card for UFC 146 came out, it was widely considered the best heavyweight card in MMA history. But low and behold, Alistair Overeem was caught with elevated testosterone in a random drug test after a 146 press conference.  UFC president Dana White was beyond pissed as he had to scrap Overeem and bump former champ Frank Mir from his fight against Cain Velasquez to take on Dos Santos. If that wasn’t enough, Gabriel Gonzaga and Mark Hunt came down with injuries so Joe Silva had to keep switching opponents and plug in new faces to keep the all-heavyweight card still an exciting event. Though some might say that Dos Santos-Mir isn’t the fight that they were craving, it will still prove to be an exciting fight. I mean let’s be honest, Mir was going to fight Dos Santos eventually so why are we so aggravated? This Card will still deliver explosive fights (including great prelim action) with some of the best heavies in the division highlighted by a heavyweight title fight between champion Junior Dos Santos against Frank Mir.

UFC Heavyweight Championship
Junior “Cigano” Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir

            This is a great fight stylistically for good and bad reasons. It’s a good fight stylistically because Dos Santos (14-1) has never faced a fighter with Mir’s Jiu Jitsu pedigree but we’ve rarely seen Dos Santos on the ground much less get taken down. Only Shane Carwin and Gabriel Gonzaga managed to take Cigano down but for very little as the Brazilian popped up almost immediately. This is a bad matchup stylistically (at least for Mir) because Mir (16-5) does not bode well against heavy-hitters. All five of Mir’s losses have come by TKO to punches. In order for Mir to win, he’ll obviously have to take it to the ground and look for submissions. Mir has even stated that he would pull guard and look for Dos Santos’s leg for a submission. But in order to do any of that, Mir has to get Dos Santos to respect his stand-up enough to be open for a takedown. But Mir’s takedowns have always been pretty predictable and usually it has to be his opponent to take Mir down in order to work his submissions. That being said, Dos Santos is too good of a striker to even worry about Mir’s stand-up and even if he is taken down by Mir, it won’t be for long. The heavyweight division has always been known to be a very hostile division but Dos Santos shows signs to be the champion for many years to come. Dos Santos by 2nd round TKO.

Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva

            Cain Velasquez is in a must win situation. After a devastating knockout loss to now champion Junior Dos Santos, Velasquez (9-1) must prove to the MMA world that he is still one of the top heavyweights in the world. The same could also go for Silva. Bigfoot (16-3) after earning an upset TKO against former heavyweight king Fedor Emelianenko, the upset tables was then turned on Silva. Bigfoot was knocked out by now Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix champ and Velasquez’s teammate Daniel Cormier. Velasquez can take a page out of his teammate’s playbook and basically do the same thing to Bigfoot to earn the W. Velasquez lands the most significant strikes per minute in the UFC, which does not sit well with the gigantic Brazilian. Velasquez might want to avoid using his stellar wrestling in this fight to avoid Bigfoot’s underrated ground game. Velasquez will keep this fight standing, constantly moving and landing strike after strike as Velasquez end the fight in the first round via TKO.

Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve vs. Lavar “Big” Johnson

            Lavar Johnson will look for his second victory in three weeks, and his third KO of the night award. The last person to attain two wins in three weeks time was Chris Leben and those two wins in that short of time skyrocketed Leben to top-tier middleweights. The same can happen for Johnson. Lavar (17-5) is coming off a spectacular KO victory over Pat Berry and will face Skyscraper by filling in for the injured Mark Hunt. Struve (27-5) is also coming off a two-fight win streak most recently besting Dave Herman by TKO. At just 24 years of age, the Dutchman can still improve leaps and bounds as well as fill out his 6-11 frame. Each time Struve enters the cage he does just that; looking more filled out and better every outing. Struve has great kickboxing and ground skills, which can be detrimental to Johnson. Johnson will have to look to put this fight away early as not only has Johnson proved he can do but Struve is proned to that kind of defeat as well. Johnson although almost looks like if he didn’t end up getting his past two knockouts, he would punch himself out. Johnson will move forward and ignore the Dutchman’s superior reach and look for the kill. Struve will weather the storm of an onslaught of punches to survive the first round, as Johnson will punch himself out. Into the second round, Struve takes the fight to the ground and submits a gassed Johnson.

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