Friday, June 29, 2012

Get to know Bulls draft choice Marquis Teague

   
        After Derrick Rose tore his ACL late in Game 1 against the 76ers, you could've called this one.
        With the 29th pick of the 2012 NBA Draft, the Chicago Bulls immediately prepared for Rose's absence by selecting Kentucky point guard Marquis Teague. The freshman point guard fits the mold of Bulls draft choices in the past.
        Chicago's front office loves winners. Carlos Boozer, Richard Hamilton and Joakim Noah all won national championships while in college (at Duke, Connecticut and Florida, respectively. Noah actually won back-to-back titles.) Luol Deng and Derrick Rose both reached the Final Four as freshman (for Duke and Memphis, respectively) and Rose lost in overtime in the National Championship game against Kansas. Heck, even Brian Scalabrine lost in the Elite Eight to Boozer's national championship Duke squad. The Bulls front office intentionally builds its team around winners. Teague certainly adds to that winning culture.
        Teague started 40 games for the 2012 National Champion Kentucky Wildcats. He didn't just sit back and watch No. 1 pick Anthony Davis and No. 2 pick Michael Kidd-Gilchrist dominate either; he took more shots than both of them (albeit less effectively). Being the starting point guard of a 38-2 team can't be understated. Although Teague's college performance was highly disappointing, he still learned more in one year than most players do in four. The Bulls got a steal at 29.
        Anywhere you look, Teague wasn't supposed to drop this far. ESPN's Chad Ford had Teague being drafted 19th overall by the Orlando Magic. Draft Express had Teague being picked at 25 by the Memphis Grizzlies. NBAdraft.net projected Teague being selected 18th overall by the Houston Rockets. The Bulls were fortunate to even have the opportunity to draft Teague (in unrelated news, when the selection was announced I was still recovering from my tantrum after Perry Jones III was selected by the Oklahoma City Thunder with the pick right before the Bulls. Of course he got taken before the Bulls, of course.) Although Chicago got a steal in Teague, he's a work in progress.
Teague was the No. 1 ranked point guard in high school
        To say Teague underperformed while at Kentucky is an understatement. Teague entered Kentucky as the first ranked point guard in the nation and eighth best player overall according to ESPN. He averaged 22.7 points, 5.9 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game as a senior at Pike High School in Indianapolis (if you want to see Teague at his best, watch this mixtape). At Kentucky, those numbers dropped to 10.0 points, 4.8 assists and 2.5 rebounds while shooting 41.2 percent. That's while playing a whopping 32.6 minutes per game. Teague also shot the ball horribly, connecting on only 28.4 percent of his spot up attempts. He also shot only 51 percent at the rim (the NBA league average this season was 62.7 percent at the rim). You would expect a point guard playing with five other NBA draft choices to put up bigger numbers than that. Perhaps Teague's biggest problem was translating his athleticism to the court. Teague, despite his poor numbers, is an exceptional athlete.

 NBA Combine Athletic Measurements
Player
Height
Wingspan
No Step Vert
Max Vert
Lane Agility
3/4 Court Sprint
Bench Press
Marquis Teague
6' 2''
6' 7.25''
32.5
40.5
10.65
3.19
8
Derrick Rose
6' 2.5''
6' 8''
34.5
40
11.69
3.05
10
John Wall
6' 4''
6' 9.25''
30
39
10.84
3.14
N/A
Russell Westbrook
6' 3.5''
6' 7.75''
30
36.5
10.98
3.08
12
Jeff Teague
6' 1.5''
6' 7.5''
30.5
36.5
11.05
3.18
13
  **Statistics provided by draftexpress.com**
        I matched up the most athletic point guards in the league with Teague, and surprisingly, Teague's athletic measurements compare favorably to his counterparts. Teague's height is within two inches of all of them while his wingspan is within an inch of everyone other than Wall (Teague's wingspan was third among point guards during this year's combine). His no step vertical is only worse than Rose at 32.5 inches. Teague's max vertical, on the other hand, leads the entire group at 40.5 inches (second best among all players at the combine). His lane agility of 10.65 also leads the group (sixth best at the combine). Although his 3/4 court sprint is last in the group, Teague was fourth among all players at the combine this year. Brother Jeff Teague and Russell Westbrook dominated the bench press, but that is largely because both players left college as sophomores, so their bodies were more developed. Let's see how Teague's athletic numbers translated to the court by comparing his last season numbers to Rose, Westbrook, Wall and his brother Jeff in their last seasons in college.

In-game Athletic Statistics per 40 minutes (players most recent college season)

Player
Rebs
Stls
Blks
FTA/FGA
PFs
Marquis Teague
3.1
1.1
0.3
0.34
2.8
Derrick Rose
6.2
1.6
0.5
0.47
2.3
John Wall
4.9
2
0.6
0.53
2.2
Russell Westbrook
4.6
1.9
0.2
0.38
2.8
Jeff Teague
4.1
2.3
0.8
0.59
2.7
 **Statistics provided by draftexpress.com**
        The most statistics that exemplify athleticism are rebounds, steals, blocks and free throw attempt per field goal attempt. As you can tell by this chart, Teague was nowhere near this elite group of point guards. Teague was by far the worst in the group in rebounds and steals per 40 minutes. He was also second to last in blocks per 40 minutes. Despite rarely getting steals and blocks, Teague had the highest foul rate of the group, tied with Westbrook. Teague was also last in FTA/FGA. Herein lies the problem; his athletic measurements are off the charts, but he's struggled to find a way to translate his athleticism into on-the-court production. Perhaps head coach Tom Thibodeau could shape Teague into the player he was anticipated to become upon entering Kentucky.
        Teague is quite a talent even when considering his shortcomings. Athletes like him don't come around very often. Even if Teague never improves offensively (which is doubtful), he has tremendous defensive potential. Teague dominated in iso situations, holding opponents to 26.1 percent shooting. He held opponents to the same percentage in pick and roll situations as well. Teague competes on the defensive end despite his poor steal and block rates.
        John Hollinger's draft rater also projected a very bright NBA career for Teague. The draft rater is a tool that Hollinger created that analyzes college stats and predicts NBA performance. The tool has accurately predicted future success for the likes of Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Vucevic, Jon Leuer and Daniel Green. The rater also accurately predicted the poor performances of Jimmer Fredette and Josh Selby. His draft rater this year predicted Teague to have the fourth best player efficiency rating among perimeter players with a PER of 13.18. That PER is ahead of Harrison Barnes, Bradley Beal, Tony Wroten Jr. and Jeremy Lamb. Obviously this draft rater isn't perfect by any means, but the formula has had success in the past and is worth noting.
        Here's an even more important point; college stats are somewhat misleading.
        Take Westbrook for example. Westbrook was never a star in college despite playing two seasons at UCLA. His best season at UCLA he only averaged 12.7 points and 4.3 assists per game. His last season with the Oklahoma City Thunder he averaged 23.6 points and 5.5 assists per game. I'm not saying Teague is a future Westbrook, but at the very least he shouldn't be cast off because of his poor college numbers.
        Teague's ceiling is a smaller version of Wall and a more athletic and bigger version of Kyle Lowry (Teague has actually compared himself to Lowry in interviews). His floor is someone like Jeremy Pargo. Pargo, like Teague, has an older brother in the NBA (Jannero Pargo) and has struggled to a make an NBA rotation. Pargo is super-athletic, like Teague, but isn't a good enough shooter or distributor to be an NBA starter. Teague's middle-ground is probably his brother Jeff. The older Teague is coming off his best season as an Atlanta Hawk, averaging 12.6 points and 4.9 assists per game while shooting 47.7 percent from the field. A season like that isn't out of the question for the younger Teague in the future. Even though Teague may play solid minutes this upcoming season while Rose is recovering, when Rose returns his minutes might be hard to find. Playing Teague alongside Rose isn't ideal.
        Marquis Teague isn't a home run by any means, but at 29, you rarely find one. No matter what player Teague becomes, one thing is certain; the Bulls could've done a lot worse with the 29th pick.
       

   

Monday, June 25, 2012

The Chicago Sports Guys NBA Mock Draft


With the draft coming up in three days, draft and trade rumors are starting to pick up. The Chicago Sports Guys have had tons of content preparing for the draft, including our Draft Express/John Hollinger/Chad Ford Composite Mock Draft from a week ago. Once again, our writers have gotten creative and we’ve made a Chicago Sports Guys Mock Draft. We split the 30 first round picks between four writers: Mikey Wonsover, Brett Zimmerman, the new Jordan Brash, and I. This mock shows the draft from a different perspective; who we would take if we were making the picks, not necessarily who we think the teams would pick. With that being said, enjoy.
 
Arik Wonsover- 1. New Orleans Hornets, Anthony Davis, PF/C, Kentucky- This is a no-brainer. He is a once in every 10 years type of talent and is by far the most talented player in this draft.
Mikey Wonsover- 2. Charlotte Bobcats, Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas- The Bobcats already have Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson that can handle shooting guard, so Bradley Beal is not ideal. I've never been a huge fan of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, especially taking him this early in the draft. Robinson dominated college basketball and should finally give Charlotte a low-post option. He is a safe pick.
Brett Zimmerman- 3. Washington Wizards, Bradley Beal, SG, Florida- After the trade to pick up Ariza and Okafor, this team only has one hole remaining to complete a solid line-up. Beal fills that hole at the two, gives them the shooter they need in the backcourt, and provides a lot of hope in Washington.
Jordan Brash- 4. Cleveland Cavaliers, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky- The Cavaliers are bare, but have Kyrie Irving to build the team around. Adding a big-time character/defensive guy like MKG at a position of need will only add wins for the Cavs and give them more to build around.
Arik Wonsover- 5. Sacramento Kings, Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina- The Kings are loaded with guards and outside of Demarcus Cousins, they're in desperate need of some size, but Drummond or Leonard may be a reach this early. I'd take Barnes, he'd be an immediate upgrade over Outlaw and Salmons.
Mikey Wonsover- 6. Portland Trailblazers, Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse- I love Waiters. He's a poor man’s Dwyane Wade and has loads of potential. Damian Lillard is available at this spot, but I'd rather have Waiters. Waiters could handle the point and could immediately help out the Blazers.
Brett Zimmerman- 7. Golden State Warriors, Austin Rivers, PG/SG, Duke- With Bogut, and my lack of faith in Drummond, and no 4’s (what they need) that I like here, I address the backcourt losing Monta Ellis. Rivers will provide some elite athleticism and what I believe to be an underrated defensive prospect and slide Klay over to the 3.
Jordan Brash- 8. Toronto Raptors, Jeremy Lamb, SG, UConn- The Raptors manage to get the best player left on my board in Lamb. He is a rangy, scoring 2 that will compliment Demar DeRozan's hyper-athletic arsenal. The Raptors can utilize them in a rotation or move DeRozan to the 3.
Arik Wonsover- 9. Detroit Pistons, Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois- I might be a little biased as a U of I student, but Leonard is one athletic dude with a huge 7'3" wingspan and Blake Griffin-like hops. He may be a little green, but with some time he could be a top 10 NBA center.
Mikey Wonsover- 10. New Orleans Hornets, Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State- If I'm the Hornets GM, I'm loving the idea of pairing Lillard with Davis. Lillard is a big time scorer and measured as well as anyone in the athletic measurements at the combine. Lillard immediately helps New Orleans forget about Chris Paul.
Brett Zimmerman- 11. Portland Trailblazers, Andre Drummond, C, Connecticut- After selecting Waiters, the Blazers need to find an athletic big to protect the rim to pair with Aldridge. Drummond comes with risk, but at this point, he’s worth the risk and they’ll hope that the play of the NBA revs up that motor of his. If it can, watch out.
Jordan Brash- 12. Milwaukee Bucks, Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio St- The Bucks have a lot of talent with Jennings, Ellis, Sanders, and Ilyasova, but they have no one who can get dirty in the paint and get them points. His back is an obvious concern, but I believe he is worth taking a chance on at this point. Henson is another option but he is very similar to Larry Sanders and they need someone that can score.
Arik Wonsover- 13. Phoenix Suns, Terrence Ross, SG, Washington- I was tempted to select a PG, as Nash is expected to jet, but you gotta pick up Ross if he slips this far. Ross is lengthy, athletic, and a good shooter. Think Jason Richardson.
Mikey Wonsover- 14. Houston Rockets, Tyler Zeller, C, North Carolina- I understand John Henson is available, but I'd rather have Zeller. Zeller is as safe of a pick as there is in this draft. He reminds me of Pau Gasol with less upside and has four years of experience to prove that he is NBA ready.
Brett Zimmerman- 15. Philadelphia 76ers, Terrence Jones, SF/PF, Kentucky- The 76ers need shooting and need to find some bigs that can score in the post. Terrance Jones should be able to provide that, plus an NBA-ready body that will not wear down as easily through the NBA season.
Jordan Brash- 16. Houston Rockets, Fab Melo, C, Syracuse- This is definitely high for Melo but if you’re the Rockets and can add Zeller to team with Patrick Patterson, a rim protector like Melo would make a lot of sense. At this point in the draft, you can take a risk because you're not guaranteed any returns, even by taking a "safe" pick.
Arik Wonsover- 17. Dallas Mavericks, Kendall Marshall, PG, North Carolina- With Kidd a free agent and no guarantee of corralling Deron Williams, Marshall is a fit. He's a very traditional point guard with good length and stellar passing ability. He should be a serviceable starter or backup right away.
Mikey Wonsover- 18. Minnesota Timberwolves, John Henson, PF, North Carolina- With no good shooting guards available at this spot, I'd go with Henson. He's a bundle of talent and has a knack for blocking shots. The Wolves could use a shot blocker since the current frontcourt of Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic rarely protects the rim.
Brett Zimmerman- 19. Orlando Magic, Royce White, SF/PF, Iowa State (checkout Mikey's Interview with Royce White)- The Magic need better passers on their team, as well as some toughness along the frontcourt. I love Royce White as a fit for them. His point forward skills, alongside Dwight (for now) and all those shooters, will be a welcome addition to Orlando.
Jordan Brash- 20. Denver Nuggets, Andrew Nicholson, PF, St. Bonaventure- Nicholson is big and finds ways to get the ball into the hoop, which is exactly that's what the Nuggets need. Reminds me a lot of Jason Thompson from Rider a few years back.
Arik Wonsover- 21. Boston Celtics, Perry Jones, SF/PF, Baylor- Jones may represent the biggest risk-reward prospect in the entire draft, although, at this low I'd take the risk. Jones could thrive under a coach like Doc Rivers and would be a key piece to the Celtics potential rebuilding mode.
Mikey Wonsover- 22. Boston Celtics, Moe Harkless, SF, St. John's- Harkless was tremendous as a freshman at St John's. If I'm in the Celtics front office, I'm looking to draft a young player with a lot of talent. Harkless has a ton of upside and could be part of the Celtics future core along with Rondo and Perry Jones, in this scenario.
Brett Zimmerman- 23. Atlanta Hawks, Tony Wroten Jr., PG/SG, Washington- The Hawks need guard help, with the height to play shooting guard and the vision to play point guard, Wroten can play both backcourt positions. He’s an interesting project for a team that needs some help in the backcourt.
Jordan Brash- 24. Cleveland Cavaliers, Doron Lamb, SG, Kentucky- After taking Kidd-Gilchrist with their first pick, the Cavs will need someone who can help Kyrie with the scoring. Lamb provides an excellent spot-up jumper, along with the ability to create his own shot to some degree. With two early second round picks, the Cavs may look to move around to secure the players they want.
Arik Wonsover- 25. Memphis Grizzlies, Quincy Miller, SF, Baylor- With the Grizzlies listening to offers for Rudy Gay, they might soon need a replacement at SF. Miller represents another boom-bust pick, but with his athleticism and point forward type skills, he's a steal if he falls this far.
Mikey Wonsover- 26. Indiana Pacers, Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky- This is a no-brainer for Indiana if he's available. Darren Collison and George Hill aren't bad, but clearly the Pacers could use an upgrade at point guard. Teague had a very disappointing season at UK, but he still started for a national championship team. If Teague ends up being as good as his brother Jeff, I think he's a huge steal this late in the draft.
Brett Zimmerman- 27. Miami Heat, Arnett Moultrie, PF/C, Mississippi State- What do you get for the team that has everything? Well, they could use any big with height and the ability to rebound/defend, and Arnett fits the bill. If he fell this far, that would be trouble for anyone trying to beat the Heat.
Jordan Brash- 28. Oklahoma City Thunder, Draymond Green, SF/PF, Michigan St.- Green has a has a little bit of Jeff Green (no relation) to his game. He would be able to play effectively with James Harden on the Thunder's second unit with his ability to pass, drive, and shoot.
Arik Wonsover- 29. Chicago Bulls, John Jenkins, SG, Vanderbilt- The Bulls are in desperate need of a SG, especially with the Bulls prepared to let Korver walk. Jenkins will give them the best shooter in college basketball last season, as well as a 20 ppg scorer in college. He doesn't have huge upside, but he can play right away.
Mikey Wonsover- 30. Golden State Warriors, Jeff Taylor, SF, Vanderbilt- The Warriors are in need of a small forward (as the Luol Deng rumors would indicate), so Taylor makes sense here. I love his athletic ability and he vastly improved his three-point shooting last season.

Friday, June 22, 2012

UFC on FX 4 Predictions:The Bully vs. The Carpenter


        The UFC lightweight division is one of the deepest divisions in the sport. That being said, the division is a constant raging torrent.  New talents emerge and top-ten lightweights are constantly battling for the number one contender's spot. Two lightweights headline Friday’s UFC on FX 4 card and both are seeking that number one spot. Gray Maynard and Clay Guida are the first UFC on FX headliners to be coming off losses, but top tier skill will surely be on display. A convincing win for either man could land them a potential title shot and send shockwaves through the division. In addition to this elite lightweight scrap, plenty of great fights fill the card. Spencer Fisher and Sam Stout will complete their epic trilogy, along with Brian Ebersole taking on TJ Waldburger. Even No. 2 featherweight Hatsu Hioki and the welterweight debut of Dan Miller grace the prelims. For a free FX card, it’s sure to bring fireworks.

Gray “The Bully” Maynard vs Clay “The Carpenter” Guida
        It’s been a long time coming for Clay Guida to finally be part of a five round fight. With his seemingly unlimited gas tank, seeing Guida go 25 minutes will surely be a treat. Maynard, on the other hand, will be fighting in his third consecutive five round affair. Maynard (11-1-1) is coming off a devastating loss to long time rival Frankie Edgar and will be looking to get back into the title picture. Guida (29-9) is also coming off a loss to now lightweight champ Benson Henderson in a stellar bout on UFC on Fox 1. I don’t think it’s a surprise that this fight should go the full 25. Maynard has the stronger wrestling base and bigger power in his hands. He will look to take control early, landing several significant strikes, setting up powerful takedowns. Maynard can use his strength and size to keep Clay down, while distributing some solid ground and pound. Clay will take a page out of Edgar’s book by constantly moving in and out, peppering the Bully with punches. Clay will need to be the aggressor in order to win, keeping Maynard on defense. But that won’t happen. With each tie up, Maynard will land multiple knees and some dirty boxing until he takes Guida down. Guida will try for multiple submission attempts to no avail, as Maynard’s suffocating wrestling will snuff out the Chicagoan. Guida’s gas tank will be the only thing that keeps him in this fight, going 100 percent coming out of every round. But it will be all for not. Maynard by unanimous decision.

Sam “Hands of Stone” Stout vs Spencer “The King” Fisher

        Not many trilogies have brought as much action and entertainment to the MMA community than Stout and Fisher. The pair first met at UFC 58 with Stout (18-7-1) taking a split decision victory and again at UFC Fight Night 10, but with Fisher (25-8) coming out on top. With both fighters coming off losses to Thiago Tavares, they find themselves back in the octagon with each other. This time around, Stout is entering the prime of his fighting career, while this may be Fisher’s last fight. Stout will loom to implement his Muay Thai, while Fisher will look to use lateral movement in delivering his strikes. Stout can also deliver a lot of punishment inside the pocket looking to cripple the King with body shots. If there is anything we can take from their last two bouts against each other, both can take tremendous amounts of punishment. Although, Fisher doesn’t look like he can go through a war like those again. Stout by third round TKO.

Brian “Bad Boy” Ebersole vs TJ Waldburger

        This is an interesting match-up between a slick grappler in Waldburger and 65-fight veteran Ebersole. Ebersole (49-14-1 1NC), who has the most wins and losses on the FX 4 card, will be looking to add on to his 10-fight winning streak. He has a test in Waldburger (15-6), who is proficient off his back. Ebersole is too well-rounded and seasoned for Waldburger. Ebersole will use his strikes to set up clinches for takedowns. From there, Ebersole will defend Waldburgers’ submissions while landing some proficient ground and pound. Ebersole by TKO in round one.

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Royce White: Not Just Black and White


         **Quotes are from the Chicago Sports Guys and the Online Sidelines' exclusive interview with Royce White**
        If you think you know Royce White, you don’t.
        To be at the point now –where White will almost certainly be drafted to an NBA team on June 28th– is nothing short of a miracle. White’s pursuit of an NBA career got off to a rocky start, to say the least.
        The Minneapolis native decided to stay home and attend the University of Minnesota. The 35th ranked recruit in the nation according to ESPN was expected to bring a winning culture to the Golden Gophers. Unfortunately for White, he never even stepped on the court for Minnesota.
        After being involved in an incident at the Mall of America, he was suspended for the entire 2009-10 season. Shortly after, White was accused of laptop theft at a University of Minnesota dorm. He then decided to transfer from the Twin Cities. Although his time at Minnesota was short-lived and controversial, he learned a lot from the experience.
        “I learned to trust myself and to trust in what I believe in, and to stand for what I stand for, no matter what,” White said. “The biggest thing I took from (the situation in Minnesota) was that I was neglecting certain parts of who I was. I was making my life all about basketball and that didn’t balance, and it created some issues, just like it would create issues for anybody.”
        White needed a second chance and got one in the form of Iowa State head coach Fred Hoiberg. At a time where White’s reputation had been tarnished, Hoiberg and Iowa State took him in, a decision Hoiberg wouldn’t regret.
        Although he was not eligible to play for the Cyclones until the 2011-12 season, White played like a seasoned veteran right off the bat. Earning the Big 12 Preseason Newcomer of the Year award, White had high expectations, and boy, did he live up to the hype.
        White became the first Cyclone since his coach Fred Hoiberg to lead Iowa State in points, rebounds and assists. He was also the only Division I player to lead his team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. He finished second in the Big 12 in rebounding (averaging 9.3 a game) and field goal percentage (53.4 percent). White was also second in the nation in assists per game (5.1) among non-guards. He unanimously earned Big 12 Newcomer of the Year and made the All-Big 12 First team by the Associated Press. Most importantly, he did all of this while winning.
        White led Iowa State to a 23-11 overall record and a 12-6 record in the Big 12 (tied for third best in the conference). The year before, Iowa State finished 3-13 in the Big 12, good for last place in the conference. He also led the Cyclones to an NCAA tournament victory (its first since the 2004-2005 season) over the Connecticut Huskies (the defending champions). Iowa State met its end in the next round at the hands of Anthony Davis and the national champion Kentucky Wildcats. Despite winning a tournament game, White had a different favorite victory.
        “I would say my favorite game to play in was probably when we played Kansas,” White said. “I feel like it meant the most to the people here in Ames, and the community here in Ames, because it has been so long since we had beaten them. They kinda run our conference, being in the Big 12, so you know, that win meant a lot to me because it meant a lot to the community here.”
        After experiencing a magical season at Iowa State, White declared for the 2012 NBA Draft.
        “Definitely one of (the reasons for leaving) was the type of season that I had this year, and measuring up against the other players that were probably going to be declaring for the draft," White said. "My NCAA tournament games against six or seven of the top draft picks this year definitely helped me know that I could make that jump if I wanted to. There are certain things I want to achieve and that I want to do that the NCAA just doesn’t allow its athletes to do. I wanted to get away from that and really be able to knock some of my long term goals out.”
        Even after the season he had at Iowa State, question marks remained among NBA personnel regarding White's character. The biggest red flag for NBA teams, aside from his past legal troubles, has been his well-documented anxiety disorder. White’s struggle with anxiety disorder has coincided with his fear of flying. Being on an NBA team requires taking flights with regularity. He has decided to be vocal about his anxiety disorder despite it being a negative among NBA annals. White is more concerned about spreading awareness about mental illnesses than what the NBA thinks about him.
        “I think that people should know to not be afraid to confront or communicate your mental illnesses based on what other people will perceive them as,” White said. “For me, on this venture to the NBA, I decided to deal with it, just because I think that it will help. Whether or not it is a liability to others is really not important, and that is kinda how I feel about my own disorder is that I’m going to communicate openly and confront my disorder, and also try and help others, because I think we need that, and I think we need each other.”
        White views his anxiety disorder as an impediment to his NBA career for different reasons than you’d think.
        “I think (the anxiety disorder) is a hindrance because the people that make the decisions for the NBA don’t understand it,” White said. “In life, its not a hindrance, actually, its just the body’s way of fighting off threats that may be present, and sometimes anxiety can cause you to be prepared to fight off a threat even when you don’t need to. At the same time, its just a survival system. That survival system can be looked at as a liability in terms of the way that the NBA looks at it.”
        That’s one thing you’ll learn about White; he doesn’t care what people think. He isn’t trying to make people like him; he’s just living his life. What you see is what you get. He thinks this whole anxiety disorder dilemma has been so overblown to the point where he might not even get drafted come next Thursday.
        “You know, lately, I’ve been seeing myself not getting drafted,” White said. “My own personal belief – I do think that we are at a place right now, industrially and socially, where we are not ready to talk about mental illness, and we are not ready to admit the effects, and admit how prevalent it is in our community. And because of that, it wouldn’t surprise me to not get drafted. I can see (my anxiety disorder) dropping me all the way out of the draft completely.”
        After leaving Minnesota with a bitter taste, White hopes the Timberwolves give him another chance.
        “Definitely the community there, I grew up watching the Timberwolves play,” White said. “Obviously (I’d want to play for Minnesota), and I always was a Timberwolves fan, and Minnesota sports fan in general. To be able to go back to that community, especially after what happened at the U of M, and be able to fulfill that desire to play in front of those people that kinda helped me become who I am, that would definitely fill a big void for me."
        The Timberwolves, or any NBA team for that matter, could use a player of White’s skill level. His unselfishness, paired with Ricky Rubio’s, could become a deadly one-two punch.
        “I’m really unselfish,” White said. “I’m an unselfish player, as I am an unselfish man, and I think that that culture is really good for teams. I think we saw it last year with the Dallas Mavericks and great teams in the past, that sacrificing your own achievement or personal goals for the betterment of the group is always the way to success.”
        Some players model their games after star players such as LeBron James, Michael Jordan, etc. White, like in most areas of his life, is different.
        “I model my game more after basketball philosophy than basketball players,” White said. “Things like chemistry, flow, camaraderie, all those philosophies are things that I model my game after, and kinda be a player of cerebral nature.”
        Even after a season where White led his team in all five of the major statistical categories, he still believes he needs to work on his entire repertoire.
        “I think in my personal belief, if you haven’t perfected something, then it’s a weakness,” White said. “So, literally, I would argue that I have to work on everything. You don’t want to stop practicing shooting jump shots until you’re 100 percent, and you will never be 100 percent, so you want to always continue to work at everything you do. But if there is one thing that I would specify, it would be jump shooting, just because it’s been a long time since I tried to refine that part of my game.”
        When he's not working on improving his game, White enjoys writing and literature. Yep you read that correctly, writing and literature.
        “I’m really a writer by craft,” White said. “I love to write. I grew up very into literature and reading. My mother kept books around me. I didn’t have a TV in my room, which allowed me to get a sense of writing, and literature, and communication, rhetoric, and those kinds of things. That’s definitely a part of me."
        Along with his interests in writing and literature, White is a huge Beatles fan. John Lennon actually helped inspire his grizzly beard
        “I’m a big Beatles fan,” White said. “I grew up around my grandmother just as much as my own mother. She took care of me a lot, and she was a big Beatles fan. I started to research the philosophy of John Lennon and the things that he stood for and I fell in love with who he was, even though he was before my time. I’m just taking a liking to what it is that he stood for as a human being.”
        Royce White is as big of an enigma as the basketball world has ever seen. On one hand, he’s a kid who’s dealt with legal problems, anxiety disorder and questions about his character in the past. On the other hand, he’s a person that has exercised his demons and possesses a unique skill-set for a six-foot-eight power forward. In only one season of college basketball he re-wrote Iowa State’s record books.
        On June 28th, nobody knows when White will be drafted. ESPN’s Chad Ford and Draft Express have White being selected 23rd overall by the Atlanta Hawks. Stat guru John Hollinger has him ranked tenth. White himself is starting to believe he won’t be drafted at all.
        Even if by some off chance White doesn’t get drafted, basketball isn’t everything to him.
        “I’m just ready to become a professional in a sense of life, even outside of basketball.”

Monday, June 18, 2012

Draft Express/John Hollinger/Chad Ford Composite Mock Draft

  
        With the NBA Draft coming up on June 28th, people are beginning to wonder how the draft will pan out. Whether it be ESPN's Chad Ford and John Hollinger or even draftexpress.com, everyone has a different opinion on where players should be drafted.
        Ford bases his big board on what he's hearing from NBA general managers, executives and scouts. His big board does not reflect his own opinion, rather it is a consensus mock draft for all NBA personnel he has contacted.
        Hollinger's big board reflects his own formula. This formula has improved year after year (each year there is more data) and provides a statistical perspective of players (his formula doesn't account for intangibles for example). His formula has been quite effective predicting the success of players in the past (in the 2011 draft Hollinger accurately predicted success for Kawhi Leonard, Jon Leuer and Nikola Vucevic). It is important to note that Hollinger's formula predicts a players future player efficiency rating (PER). Past players such as Michael Beasley and Tyrus Thomas rated well in Hollinger's formula but have turned out to be worse NBA players than anticipated (although both of their PER's have been very good so far in their respective careers, their poor intangibles were unpredictable). Although Hollinger's big board reflects his formula, he still includes his own opinion as well (therefore his order is not strictly based on his calculations. For example, Henry Sims is the 10th best big man according to his formula but he only has him ranked 32nd overall on his big board).
        Draft Express is a website that in the past I wouldn't have called trustworthy but recently they've improved immensely. DX has tremendous scouting videos that I highly suggest viewing. DX is also partnered with Yahoo which is a plus. Their database is extensive, featuring some of the best advanced stats on the internet for international and college prospects.
        After reviewing all three of these big boards the Chicago Sports Guys came up with the idea of calculating a composite score. This composite score is the average ranking of Hollinger, Ford and Draft Express' big boards. The chart below ranks the players in order of their composite score. When reviewing composite scores, remember this is predicting future NBA success not draft order. At the end, Arik Wonsover will shed some insight on the calculations and draw conclusions.

 2012 NBA Draft Composite Big Board

Player
College
Hollinger
Ford
DX
Composite
Comp Rank
Anthony Davis
Kentucky
1
1
1
1
1
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Kentucky
3
2
3
2.67
2
Thomas Robinson
Kansas
2
4
4
3.33
3
Andre Drummond
UCONN
5
5
2
4
4
Bradley Beal
Florida
11
3
5
6.33
5
Harrison Barnes
UNC
12
6
6
8
6
Jared Sullinger
OSU
7
10
7
8
7
Dion Waiters
Syracuse
4
8
19
10.33
8
Terrence Jones
Kentucky
8
14
9
10.33
9
John Henson
UNC
9
12
11
10.67
10
Jeremy Lamb
UCONN
17
9
10
12
11
Damian Lillard
Weber St.
18
7
13
12.67
12
Kendall Marshall
UNC
14
18
14
15.33
13
Perry Jones
Baylor
28
13
8
16.33
14
Tyler Zeller
UNC
23
15
12
16.67
15
Quincy Miller
Baylor
6
27
17
16.67
16
Austin Rivers
Duke
19
17
15
17
17
Meyers Leonard
ILL
26
11
20
19
18
Terrence Ross
Washington
27
16
16
19.67
19
Royce White
Iowa St.
10
23
26
19.67
20
Tony Wroten
Washington
13
22
25
20
21
Marquis Teague
Kentucky
15
24
22
20.33
22
Mo Harkless
St. John's
35
20
18
24.33
23
Evan Fournier
France
24
26
24
24.33
24
Fab Melo
Syracuse
30
25
23
26
25
Draymond Green
MSU
16
28
36
26.67
26
Arnett Moultrie
Miss. St.
42
19
21
27.44
27
Doron Lamb
Kentucky
20
34
33
29
28
Tyshawn Taylor
Kansas
25
35
28
29.33
29
Andrew Nicholson
St. Bona
38
21
30
29.67
30
Festus Ezeli
Vandy
29
30
31
30
31
Will Barton
Memphis
22
32
38
30.67
32
Jeff Taylor
Vandy
50
29
27
35.33
33
Jared Cunningham
Oregon St.
46
31
35
37.33
34
John Jenkins
Vandy
48
33
32
37.67
35
Orlando Johnson
UC SB
49
39
29
39
36
Furkan Aldemir
Turkey
21
50
48
39.67
37
Kostas Papanikolaou
Greece
34
42
45
40.33
38
Drew Gordon
New Mexico
39
51
39
43
39
Jae Crowder
Marquette
45
49
43
45.67
40
Kyle O'Quinn
Norfolk St.
NR (61)
36
41
46
41
Henry Sims
Georgetown
32
41
65
46
42
Kevin Murphy
Tenn. Tech
NR (61)
38
40
46.33
43
Scott Machado
Iona
54
37
49
46.67
44
Tomas Satoransky
Czech Republic
NR (61)
40
42
47.67
45

**Kyle O'Quinn, Kevin Murphy and Tomas Satoransky were not ranked on Hollinger's big board. Therefore, we counted their rankings as 61 in the composite calculation**

        All three big boards are comparable

        Maybe the most surprising observation of these results is that they weren't very surprising. All in all, these three sources have pretty similar rankings. Most of the deviations came from John Hollinger, which is probably due to the fact that he relied heavily on his draft rating and he's not primarily a draft expert like Draft Express or Chad Ford.

         Biggest disparity between big boards

Orlando Johnson was all over the place among the big boards
        One of the players the three big boards seemed to disagree on was UC Santa Barbara shooting guard Orlando Johnson. His composite rank was 36th, but each big board had him ranked 10 spots apart from each other (49, 39 and 29). This could be due to his under-the-radar play and basketball obscurity. Not many scouts got to see him play on a regular basis or even at all. After Johnson trains with a few NBA teams, I'm sure we'll have a better feel for his draft range.


Meyers Leonard and Quincy Miller are stars or busts depending on your expert
        Quincy Miller (6, 27, 17) and Meyers Leonard (26, 11, 20) also saw quite a bit of disagreement between big boards. These are two players with major potential but have also left something to be desired. Both players also have risks tied to them. Miller is still recovering from a torn ACL he suffered his senior year of high school and Leonard has some attitude issues that need to be adjusted. These guys represent major risk-reward picks.

Overvalued and Undervalued Players

        While the big boards did a pretty nice job overall of avoiding overvaluing and undervaluing players, two players in particular ended up  a little lower than expected.

Hollinger projects Quincy Miller to be a stud in the future
        Quincy Miller jumped his expectations by ending up with a composite score of 16.67, good for 16th best overall. Much of this is due to Hollinger's more than generous rank for Miller at sixth overall. Hollinger calculated a rating of 12.94 for Miller, which was the fifth best of any perimeter player. Interestingly enough, of the eight players to rate above 13 in the past decade, five became All-stars, and the others were Rudy Gay and Kawhi Leonard (both could very well be All-Stars in the future) and Josh Childress. Hollinger stresses that the draft rater most accurately predicts wing players, so I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Arnett Moultrie's composite score was hurt by Hollinger
        The most undervalued player in the composite big board was Arnett Moultrie. He finished with the 27th best composite score, which would suggest his value is much lower than most people have him pegged. Once more, Hollinger's dismay of Moultrie, (ranking him 42nd overall) knocked him down quite a bit. Ford and DX had him ranked 19th and 21st, respectively. While Moultrie's stock has taken quite a hit since he sat out the NBA combine in Chicago, it remains unlikely that he'll be on the board by late first round. You could also argue St. Bonaventure's Andrew Nicholson was a little low at 30th overall, as he will probably be picked in the upper 20's.

Closing Thoughts

        Not every big board will correctly project every NBA player, but as you pool your sources and look for similarities, you'll get closer and closer to the truth. Hollinger, Ford and Draft Express are three of the most credible sources that you can find, but even the best can be wrong sometimes. As it goes with any draft, the NBA draft is a crap shoot. Sometimes your best guess is as good as anyone's.