Thursday, June 14, 2012

The Elite Eight: A look at the Chicago Cubs future lineup



"Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane"
       - Red, played by Morgan Freeman in the 1994 film The Shawshank Redemption.
   

        Unfortunately, with a record of 21-42, hope may be the only thing Cubs fans have at this point. After hiring Theo Epstein in the offseason, Cubs fans were expecting some immediate gratification. While sitting in last place in Major League Baseball with a winning percentage of .333, the Cubs aren't going to compete for quite some time. As bad as that may sound, waiting isn't necessarily a bad thing. Epstein may have not signed Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder, but what he has done is acquired tons of young talent to compete in the years to come. Here's a look at the Cubs brightest prospects for the future. It could be 3-6 years until this lineup ever plays together, but at the moment, the future looks bright.
       

First Base: Anthony Rizzo 
Player comparison: Adrian Gonzalez, poor man's Joey Votto, Freddie Freeman
ESPN's Keith Law's take: "Rizzo is a plus-fielding, plus-makeup, power-hitting first baseman -- just as he was last winter when he looked like he'd become Adrian Gonzalez's long-term successor in San Diego -- with more of an average hit tool and a history of wide platoon splits. He's got a good feel for the strike zone, evident even during his major league struggles, and the power to profile as an above-average or better first baseman on offense."
My take: Rizzo is tearing up the Pacific Coast League this year. In the Triple-A with the Iowa Cubs, the 22-year old Rizzo is batting .367 with 22 home runs and 57 RBI's in 60 games. He is even batting .355 against lefties in 62 at-bats. With a minimum of 60 games played, he's almost leading the PCL in all three Triple Crown categories (first in home runs and batting average but second in RBI's).This isn't a small sample size either; Rizzo was just as successful in the Triple-A last season (Rizzo hit .331 with 26 home runs and 101 RBI's in only 93 games). If you combine Rizzo's minor league numbers this season with his numbers last season you get a total of 48 home runs and 158 RBI's with a .345 batting average in only 153 games played. Looks like Rizzo is in some major need of facing better competition. Epstein even said himself a couple days ago that Rizzo may be called up soon. With Bryan LaHair starting at first base, Rizzo has had a difficult time being called up. With the numbers he is putting up, it's almost too hard for Epstein to resist. Rizzo, who is the 20th ranked prospect in baseball according to Law, is the centerpiece of the Cubs farm system. He projects to be a player who easily hits 25-30 home runs annually but still maintains a solid average. If there's one knock on Rizzo it's his low-walk rate for a first basemen. He has only walked 20 times this season and his career high in walks is only 61. As long as Rizzo keeps down his strikeouts, his low-walk total shouldn't be a big deal. Epstein, who traded for Rizzo in exchange for Andrew Cashner, did an excellent job in acquiring his first basemen of the future. Expect Rizzo to be called up after June 23rd, which is the date where he wouldn't have a season of service toward arbitration. LaHair may move to the outfield to make room for Rizzo while Alfonso Soriano may be traded. Bruce Levine recently wrote about this topic.

  Second Base: Darwin Barney 
 Player comparison: David Eckstein
Law's take: Here is what Law said during a chat earlier in the season:
Cory (Geneva, IL)


I know Darwin Barney isn't a .330 hitter, but what is his ceiling, mid-level starter?
Klaw
  (1:03 PM)


Bench guy.
My take: Barney was expected to be a bench player heading into last season. The Cubs were expected to have a platoon at second base between the right-hander Jeff Baker and the lefty Blake DeWitt. As it turned out, Barney outperformed both of them during spring training and took the job for good. Barney at the age of 26 isn't getting any younger, but I still expect the former Oregon State star to hold down the Cubs second base spot for the foreseeable future. Barney is currently hitting .279 with three home runs and 21 RBI's. His biggest strength is his consistency. No, Barney will never hit .300 or bang 20 home runs, but at the very least he gives you his all. Barney continues to have solid contact rates and rarely strikes out (he has only struck out 23 times this season and 67 times last season. He also is eighth in the majors in at-bats per strikeout). Barney is also a plus second basemen defensively, only committing one error this season so far. He also leads the National League by far in defensive wins above replacement (a statistic that measures if a replacement player was starting instead of that player). He's actually fifth in the NL in overall WAR and 10th in the MLB. Although Barney isn't the centerpiece of the Cubs future, but he is surely going to be part of it. 
Third Base: Javier Baez 
Player Comparison: Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Tejada, Gary Sheffield
Law's take: "Baez became a top-10 pick largely on the strength of an explosive bat that produces plus power and very loud, hard contact. But he's a better athlete than he's given credit for with very strong instincts on both sides of the ball. He does have a hard time keeping that swing under control, with a tendency to overswing even though he naturally produces power through torque from his hips. His hand acceleration produces tremendous bat speed and he's an average or better runner. He has the feel for defense and arm strength to play almost any position -- he even caught a little in high school and looked good doing so -- meaning the only questions about him at shortstop are whether he'll outgrow the position and whether he'll put in the work to become an above-average fielder there. If not, third base is an obvious next stop, while he could handle second or, at the absolute worst, right field. If he can cut the swing down when he's not in a fastball count, he has All-Star potential at any infield position."
My take: As Law said, Baez is an All-Star in the waiting. Baez, who was the Cubs first-round selection last season, possesses a great combination of power, speed and contact. I expect Baez to shift over to third base once his body fills out. At Single-A Peoria, Baez is currently batting .315 with three home runs and eight RBI's in 15 games. He has also swiped seven bases in as many attempts. Baez has 30 home run and 30 steal potential when he makes it to the big leagues. At 19 years old, he's a ways away from the majors, but when he arrives he's going to produce. Expect Baez to be in the middle of the Cubs order and be depended on as a run producer. 2015 may be the year Baez makes his mark.
Shortstop: Starlin Castro  
Player Comparison: Hanley Ramirez
Law's take: "As a hitter, Castro has lightning in his wrists and the ball absolutely flies off his bat. He has excellent hand-eye coordination and adjusts well when pitchers try to come in on him, keeping his hands inside the ball and squaring up pitches many hitters would foul off. His swing can get long when pitchers work him away, but he still makes a lot more contact than most hitters do, courtesy of his bat speed and hand-eye. He recognizes breaking balls well for his age and projects to hit for power even to the opposite field. As a shortstop, he's quick on his feet with good range in both ways, especially to the hole, but it is his arm that really stands out, grading at 65 or 70 on the 20-80 scale."
My take: Castro, who is only 22, has already led the league in hits, participated in an All-Star game, had two .300 batting average seasons and had an MLB-record for RBI's in an MLB debut game with six. Castro is currently the Cubs best player and projects to be its best player for many years to come. Castro's most obvious negatives are his inability to walk and his lack of focus. Castro's on-base percentage this season is only .308. He has 10 errors and only six walks on the season (he had 29 and 27 errors the last two seasons, respectively.) I'll take his low-walk rate and errors if he continues to hit at this pace. Castro isn't a bad defender despite his errors, he's actually quite good for his age. Castro is second in the NL in defensive WAR. His range is outstanding (he leads all SS in range factor per nine innings and per game) and his arm is ridiculous at times. Expect Castro to improve his defense in the future as he learns more about playing in the majors. Also expect Castro's steals to decline (he is third in the NL with 16 steals this season) and home runs to improve (he only has five this season) once his body fills out more. Castro should be a 20-20 player perennially in the future. A batting title also isn't out of the question.
Catcher: Welington Castillo
Player Comparison: Wilson Ramos
ESPN's Kevin Goldstein's take: "With the Cubs already in an early-season tailspin, the team might feel more pressure to take a look at the kids from Iowa. First baseman Anthony Rizzo and outfielder Brett Jackson are the more well-known names, but like Castillo, they might require trades to get an opportunity. That said, Geovany Soto could be a nice trade chip for the Cubs, with catching at a premium. Castillo has the ability not only to be an everyday catcher, but to be a good offensive one who helps in both the batting average and power categories."
My take: Second base and catcher are the weakest positions for the Cubs. Castillo just came off the 15-day DL and is rehabbing at Triple-A Iowa. He would've been the Cubs starting catcher had he not been injured. Geovany Soto is also close to returning, but he could potentially be traded. At 25, Castillo is the Cubs catcher of the future. In 21 minor league games this season he is batting .328 with four home runs and 14 RBI's. He also has 13 walks compared to only 15 strikeouts while boasting a .468 on-base percentage. Last season across the minors Castillo hit .287 with 16 home runs and 42 RBI's in 75 games played. If you double those numbers up (simulating a complete season) he had 32 home runs and 84 RBI's in 150 games played. Castillo has the ability to put up solid numbers for the Cubs in the future. No, Castillo isn't a blue-chip prospect, but he should at the very least provide some stability at the catcher position. Expect to see some of Castillo in the majors later this season.
Left Field: Brett Jackson 
Player Comparison: Curtis Granderson, Drew Stubbs
Law's take: "Jackson has solid tools across the board, but they're mitigated by a longstanding problem with contact that really limits his offensive upside. Jackson has some bat speed with very little load, getting his weight settled late and not letting the ball travel that well. So despite his size and athleticism, he doesn't project for more than average power. He's an above-average runner who can handle center field and could be worth five runs a year or so there in a full season, or he could move to left and potentially be plus there. But he punched out in more than 30 percent of his plate appearances in Triple-A, and only two big leaguers qualified for the batting title in 2011 with that kind of strikeout rate -- Drew Stubbs and Mark Reynolds, who had a combined OBP of .322. If Jackson can't figure out how to make better contact, he's probably a solid-average regular; but he could be a grade better if his hit tool improves."
My take: Jackson is such a unique player. First, let's get the bad out of the way. Jackson strikes out way too much (he has struck out 85 times this season in only 62 games. Last season he struck out 138 times in 115 games). As Law said above, the vast majority of major leaguers don't strike out near that rate (only Stubbs and Reynolds). Jackson is also only batting .259 at Triple-A Iowa. The former first-round pick is only 23 and could perhaps fix something in his hitting mechanics. What Jackson excels at is drawing walks, hitting home runs and swiping bases. Jackson had an outstanding .379 on-base percentage last season to go along with 73 walks. The season before he had a .395 on-base percentage with 73 walks. This season his on-base percentage is only .336, but he is still adjusting to hitting at the highest level of minor league baseball. B-Jax has an outstanding combination of speed and power. Jackson has eight home runs and eight triples to go along with 12 steals this season. Last season, Jackson went 20-20, hitting 20 home runs and stealing 21 bases. The year before, Jackson stole 30 bases in 41 attempts. Jackson is also an outstanding outfielder and could easily handle any of the three outfield positions. The Cubs will take Jackson's strikeouts if he continues to play solid defense, steal tons of bases and show off his solid power. Expect Jackson to make his Cubs debut next season and potentially get a September call-up this season.
 
Center Field: Albert Almora
Player Comparison: Adam Jones
ESPN Scouts Inc.'s take: "Almora, long a star on the showcase circuit, is one of the most polished prep bats in this class, thanks to a mechanically-sound swing and outstanding hand-eye coordination. He possesses an advanced feel for hitting along with plus power and above-average defense in center as well. He has an uncanny ability to square the ball up with a track record of doing it with wood bats against top competition. His hands get very deep to maximize power and his bat speed and direct bat path allow him to get to the ball quickly and create backspin. These elements, along with his wiry strength and explosive hips, help Almora creates surprising power for his size that could produce 20-25 home runs annually, if not more. His aggressive weight transfer at times will cause his back foot to be in the air at contact, but it is a fixable, minor nitpick. While he's only a solid-average runner, Almora has outstanding instincts and body control. This allows him to play an above-average center field in part by frequently making diving catches that expand his range as he doesn't have the extra gear scouts look for. Some scouts feel Almora will max out his frame and eventually move to a corner, but that won't happen anytime soon. His above-average arm is a weapon in center and will play in right field if he needs to move down the road. Between his raw tools and his tremendous instincts, he projects as an All-Star caliber centerfielder in the majors."
 My take: Almora, who was drafted sixth overall by the Cubs during the 2012 draft, is the center fielder of the future. Almora has been compared to Adam Jones by many analysts. If Almora is anything close to Jones than the Cubs got a stud. Almora, like Jackson, has a great combination of speed and power. Scouts Inc., on a scale between 20-80, projects Almora to grade as a 65 for hitting, 60 for power, 50 for running speed, 60 for running speed and 55 for arm strength. Here is Scouts Inc.'s explanation of its grading scale. Almora, like Baez and Rizzo, should be in the middle of the Cubs lineup in the future. It may take four years until Cubs fans see Almora but he is certainly worth the wait.
Right Field: Jorge Soler  
Player Comparison: Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Upton
Law's take: "Soler has the right raw tools to be a great hitter for average and allow himself to get to that significant raw power. He has quick, strong hands, and in his game swings, he rotates his hips well and shows some ability to keep his hands inside the ball. His BP swings can be pretty out of control as he tries to show off the raw power, but if that never happens in the game, it's not a concern. Soler is a plus runner right now, although he will probably slow down to above-average or even solid-average as his 6-foot-3, 200-pound frame fills out. But he has a plus arm and, at worst, should end up as a good defender in right field if he outgrows center. His body is loose and athletic, something he should retain even if he puts on another 20 pounds of muscle. We don't know what approach Soler will have at the plate -- willingness to work a count and ability to distinguish balls from strikes or fastballs from off-speed pitches is unknown -- other than a patient showing in the 2010 World Junior Showcase, a world away from what he will face in Class A. Approach will likely determine how long he takes to reach the majors more than any other variable. Had Soler been in this year's draft, he would probably have been a top-five pick on merit, definitely in the top 10."
My take: The Cubs signed this guy to a nine-year, $30 million contract for a reason; the kid can play. Law even went as far to say that Soler likely would've been a top 10 draft choice this season had he been eligible. That means Epstein and Co. essentially acquired two top 10 draft picks this season. Soler could potentially be "the guy" for the Cubs in the future. When you get compared to Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Upton that means something. Soler projects to be an above-average defender and will probably move to right field once he grows into his frame. The 20-year old is already 200 pounds, so he should end up looking like a monster (perhaps this is why he is compared to Stanton). It will take two to three years until Soler reaches the majors (closer to three) but the Cuban could potentially become the Cubs best player.
Final Verdict: Understandably, some Cubs fans are impatient (you can't blame them, 1908 was the Cubs last World Series championship) but by looking at this crop of young players, the Cubs have a nice foundation. Before Chicago hired Epstein, the Cubs had one of the worst farm systems in the majors. Now the Cubs boast major prospects in Rizzo, Almora and Soler. Until these players make the majors, all Cubs fans can do is hope.

"Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies"
        -Andy Dufresne, played by Tim Robbins in The Shawshank Redemption

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