Sunday, June 3, 2012

Post-Lottery Opinion: The Brow in the Big Easy


It’s official. Anthony Davis is a New Orleans Hornet. Davis may be more humble about it, but there’s not a single team that would pass up on his talents. It’s fitting that Davis will start his professional career in the same place that he burst onto the national scene, tearing through Louisville and Kansas en route to a national title. Davis led Kentucky to a near perfect season, abusing and terrorizes opponents along the way. He led the nation with 4.7 blocks per game and earned National Player of the Year honors as a freshman, a feat accomplished only once before (Kevin Durant in 2007). Just to get an idea of how special this kid is, Davis was recently added to the U.S. Olympic Basketball roster. Along with his gargantuan numbers and closet full of accolades, Davis reps a 6’10", 220 frame, combined with a versatile offensive and defensive game. Above all, he’s a well-mannered Chicago kid who shies from the spotlight and puts winning as first priority. The Hornets really got a good one.

Is Anthony Davis the next Tim Duncan?
While it’s not the most accurate comparison, some have gone as far to say that Davis’s post game at 19 years old rivals that of Duncan at the same age. Along with his solid post skills, Davis has an emerging offensive game with range out to the college 3-point line, pinpoint passing, superior speed for a big man and major hops. Some of his intangible skills are due to his growth spurt as a junior in high school, where he grew from a 6’3” point guard to a 6’10” center. He’s practically a point guard in a centers body. Think Marcus Camby.
Was the lottery rigged?
While I hate to discuss it, it’s a topic that’s been hotly debated the past few weeks. I’m not going say, nor do I know, whether or not the lottery was rigged, but all I’m saying is the Hornets winning is pretty sketchy. David Stern pretty much just gave his team (yes his team, Owners George Shinn and Gary Chouest aren’t even allowed to make moves yet) a “get out of jail free card” after botching the Chris Paul trade (you can argue Eric Gordon is yet to prove himself but come on, he missed 57 games and is about to test free agency). You can also argue that no matter how the lottery ended there would be a way to spark controversy, but there’s no question the Hornets winning was the controversial and arguably a conflict of interest. Note to Mr. Stern: please let us see the actual process of the lottery live to avoid this in the future, thanks. I’d also like to add, the New Orleans Hornets, despite finishing with the 4th worst record in the NBA last season, played their tails off. For 48 minutes a game without their star the Hornets played hard and didn’t need to tank their way to the first overall pick. All of this conspiracy stuff shouldn’t take anything away from this team.
So everyone knows, or at least now knows after reading this article, that Anthony Davis is going to be the real deal. As for the rest of the draft? Not so much. Unfortunately for the Charlotte Bobcats, who own the 2nd overall pick, there is a huge drop off of talent after the first pick. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bradley Beal, Harrison Barnes and Thomas Robinson could round out the top five, but none of those guys have the star potential of Davis. All of them have “borderline All-Star” ceilings. With every draft -- even the bad ones -- there’s always a goldmine waiting to be found. And of course, busts.

Here’s my top undervalued and overvalued players:

Undervalued- Jared Sullinger and Arnett Moultrie

How can Jared Sullinger be undervalued as a top ten pick? Well, because he should be a top three pick. Sullinger has been a dominant back-to-the-basket player at the collegiate level and can score in bunches. He is an absolute beast inside, but also has shown the ability to hit jumpers. He also led Ohio State to a Sweet 16 and Final Four. The biggest knock on him is his struggles against NBA length, but if he turns out to be a Carlos Boozer or Paul Millsap, you could do much worse with your draft pick. 
As for Mississippi State’s Arnett Moultrie, he may be the most quiet double-double threat in the nation. For many of you this will be the first you’ve heard of him. He’s an athletic big who can run the floor and hit jumpers and use his length to defend the interior. Many want to see more out of him, as this was his first year as a real impact player, but I’m already sold.

Overvalued- Damian Lillard and Michael-Kidd Gilchrist
Lots of scouts have fallen in love with Lillard’s elite scoring ability (second in the nation in points per game at 24.5) and versatility at the point guard position, but it’s hard to ignore the university he came from; Weber State. Do you know what conference that is in? The ultra-competitive Big Sky conference. You can argue Stephen Curry faced similar competition at Davidson, but he also led his team to the Elite 8. Lillard didn’t even make the tourney this season. I’ll take a chance at him mid-first round, just not in the top ten where he’ll likely end up.
Michael-Kidd Gilchrist is a studly defender and super competitive. But a top three pick? I think he projects to be a defensive specialist, but lacks an outside game (25.5 3P%). His upside is Gerald Wallace, but until he could maintain a consistent offensive game, he’s far from that comparison.
And last but not least, here is my Mock Draft 1.0. As always, leave a comment if you disagree with any of my picks.
1.       New Orleans Hornets- Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky
2.       Charlotte Bobcats- Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky
3.       Washington Wizards- Bradley Beal, SG, Florida
4.       Cleveland Cavaliers- Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina
5.       Sacramento Kings- Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas
6.       Portland Trailblazers- Andre Drummond, C, Connecticut
7.       Golden State Warriors- Perry Jones III, SF/PF, Baylor
8.       Toronto Raptors- Damian Lillard, PG/SG, Weber State
9.       Detroit Pistons- Tyler Zeller, C, North Carolina
10.   New Orleans Hornets- Austin Rivers, PG/SG, Duke
11.   Portland Trailblazers- Kendall Marshall, PG, North Carolina
12.   Milwaukee Bucks- Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State
13.   Phoenix Suns- Tony Wroten Jr., PG/SG, Washington
14.   Houston Rockets- Jeremy Lamb, SG, Connecticut
15.   Philadelphia 76ers- Arnett Moultrie, PF, Mississippi State
16.   Houston Rockets- Terrence Jones, SF/PF, Kentucky
17.   Dallas Mavericks- Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse
18.   Minnesota Timberwolves- Terrence Ross, SG, Washington
19.   Orlando Magic- Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois
20.   Denver Nuggets- Moe Harkless, SF, St. John’s
21.   Boston Celtics- John Henson, PF, North Carolina
22.   Boston Celtics- Royce White, SF/PF, Iowa State
23.   Atlanta Hawks- Quincy Miller, SF/PF, Baylor
24.   Cleveland Cavaliers- Draymond Green, SF/PF, Michigan State
25.   Memphis Grizzlies- Evan Fournier, SG, France
26.   Indiana Pacers- Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky
27.   Miami Heat- Fab Melo, C, Syracuse
28.   Oklahoma City Thunder- Andrew Nicholson, PF, St. Bonaventure
29.   Chicago Bulls- John Jenkins, SG, Vanderbilt
30.   Golden State Warriors- Jeffery Taylor, SF, Vanderbilt

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