Friday, June 22, 2012

UFC on FX 4 Predictions:The Bully vs. The Carpenter


        The UFC lightweight division is one of the deepest divisions in the sport. That being said, the division is a constant raging torrent.  New talents emerge and top-ten lightweights are constantly battling for the number one contender's spot. Two lightweights headline Friday’s UFC on FX 4 card and both are seeking that number one spot. Gray Maynard and Clay Guida are the first UFC on FX headliners to be coming off losses, but top tier skill will surely be on display. A convincing win for either man could land them a potential title shot and send shockwaves through the division. In addition to this elite lightweight scrap, plenty of great fights fill the card. Spencer Fisher and Sam Stout will complete their epic trilogy, along with Brian Ebersole taking on TJ Waldburger. Even No. 2 featherweight Hatsu Hioki and the welterweight debut of Dan Miller grace the prelims. For a free FX card, it’s sure to bring fireworks.

Gray “The Bully” Maynard vs Clay “The Carpenter” Guida
        It’s been a long time coming for Clay Guida to finally be part of a five round fight. With his seemingly unlimited gas tank, seeing Guida go 25 minutes will surely be a treat. Maynard, on the other hand, will be fighting in his third consecutive five round affair. Maynard (11-1-1) is coming off a devastating loss to long time rival Frankie Edgar and will be looking to get back into the title picture. Guida (29-9) is also coming off a loss to now lightweight champ Benson Henderson in a stellar bout on UFC on Fox 1. I don’t think it’s a surprise that this fight should go the full 25. Maynard has the stronger wrestling base and bigger power in his hands. He will look to take control early, landing several significant strikes, setting up powerful takedowns. Maynard can use his strength and size to keep Clay down, while distributing some solid ground and pound. Clay will take a page out of Edgar’s book by constantly moving in and out, peppering the Bully with punches. Clay will need to be the aggressor in order to win, keeping Maynard on defense. But that won’t happen. With each tie up, Maynard will land multiple knees and some dirty boxing until he takes Guida down. Guida will try for multiple submission attempts to no avail, as Maynard’s suffocating wrestling will snuff out the Chicagoan. Guida’s gas tank will be the only thing that keeps him in this fight, going 100 percent coming out of every round. But it will be all for not. Maynard by unanimous decision.

Sam “Hands of Stone” Stout vs Spencer “The King” Fisher

        Not many trilogies have brought as much action and entertainment to the MMA community than Stout and Fisher. The pair first met at UFC 58 with Stout (18-7-1) taking a split decision victory and again at UFC Fight Night 10, but with Fisher (25-8) coming out on top. With both fighters coming off losses to Thiago Tavares, they find themselves back in the octagon with each other. This time around, Stout is entering the prime of his fighting career, while this may be Fisher’s last fight. Stout will loom to implement his Muay Thai, while Fisher will look to use lateral movement in delivering his strikes. Stout can also deliver a lot of punishment inside the pocket looking to cripple the King with body shots. If there is anything we can take from their last two bouts against each other, both can take tremendous amounts of punishment. Although, Fisher doesn’t look like he can go through a war like those again. Stout by third round TKO.

Brian “Bad Boy” Ebersole vs TJ Waldburger

        This is an interesting match-up between a slick grappler in Waldburger and 65-fight veteran Ebersole. Ebersole (49-14-1 1NC), who has the most wins and losses on the FX 4 card, will be looking to add on to his 10-fight winning streak. He has a test in Waldburger (15-6), who is proficient off his back. Ebersole is too well-rounded and seasoned for Waldburger. Ebersole will use his strikes to set up clinches for takedowns. From there, Ebersole will defend Waldburgers’ submissions while landing some proficient ground and pound. Ebersole by TKO in round one.

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